Arizona Polling Firm Expects Donald Trump to Win Must-Win State by .5%-1%

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Nov 5, 2020

A polling and data analytics company based in Arizona expects Donald Trump to ultimately secure a tight victory in the state, with Data Orbital

“People are making a mistake with equating the ballots that are left that came in early with the early ballots that were sent back in the mail,” Data Orbital founder George Khalaf told the Epoch Times in a Wednesday interview. Khalaf predicted that the partisan composition of mail-in ballots that were dropped off at election day would break in a more decisive fashion towards Donald Trump than mail-in ballots that were mailed in earlier.

“Unlike in other states, it’s actually the inverse in Arizona. Democrats dominated early ballots that were mailed back earlier in the cycle, and Republicans absolutely dominated ballots that arrived between last Friday and election day,” he added. “Like how they dominated Election Day itself.”

Khalaf cited a 20-percentage point advantage Republicans hold in election day ballots in his expectation that Trump will secure a narrow victory in Arizona.

“We strongly feel that it will flip back to President trump … we feel like he will win a narrow victory. At this point we are expecting him to win anywhere between 0.5 and 1 percent.”

Results as of Thursday afternoon show Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by roughly 67,000 votes, with reports indicating that 515,000 total ballots are outstanding. The President would have to win approximately 58% of outstanding ballots to win the state’s 11 electoral college votes.

Maricopa County is expected to release drops of ballot information on Thursday and Friday, with the next dump coming at 9PM on Thursday night. Trump supporters have been carrying out daily rallies in the county demanding transparency and prompt election reporting, with some questioning the neutrality of Democrat County Recorder Adrian Fontes.

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