Bernie Sanders appears largely set for a big victory in this week’s Nevada caucuses, with polls suggesting the democratic socialist could win by a whopping margin of up to 19 percentage points.
Monday’s poll from Data for Progress revealed that Bernie Sanders holds a dominant lead of 35% in the state, which is third to vote in the Democratic primary process. Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg follow in a distant second and third with 16 and 15 percent.
More polling shows Sanders with a statistically significant lead, making it all but certain that the Vermont Senator will win the Nevada caucuses, which will occur on Saturday.
Staff for other Democratic candidates are already admitting that their battle in the western state will be for second place.
A big Sanders victory could heighten fears of his nomination among the Democratic establishment, who staunchly oppose Sanders’ left-wing vision for the Democratic Party.
A Sanders victory in South Carolina, the next state to vote, could all but wrap up the Democratic primary and send Sanders on an easy path to the nomination. Joe Biden, once the undisputed front-runner, will be hard-pressed to drop out if he fails to secure a victory in the southern state, long thought of as a redoubt for his struggling campaign.
Mike Bloomberg, an authoritarian oligarch attempting to buy the election through unprecedented campaign spending, remains a dark horse for the nomination, but the strength of his candidacy remains unverified until he actually competes on the ballot in upcoming Super Tuesday states.
Donald Trump’s re-election campaign may shift gears in preparing to face off against Sanders in a general election sooner rather than letter if he wins big in Nevada and secures a strong first or second place finish in South Carolina.
Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election
This is even more important than polls.
The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.
Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.
Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.
Did some further number crunching on the newly registered 57,000 voters in Maricopa, including those from #VoterRegistrationDay that have been input in the system. So far, good news for GOP.
GOP: +24,753 (43%)
DEM: +14,815 (26%)
Other: +16,966 (29%)
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) September 24, 2020
President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.
Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.
The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.
If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.
These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.
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