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Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Jones leads Moore 48% to 44% with 8% undecided

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Former U.S. attorney G. Douglas Jones, a Democrat, holds a slim lead over his GOP challenger and two-time state chief justice Roy S. Moore with 48 percent to Moore’s 44 percent, according to the Big League-Gravis poll conducted Dec. 1 through Dec. 3 with 1,276 voters likely to vote in Alabama’s Dec. 12 special Senate election.

“With less than two weeks left before the special election, the race is tight and going to pivot on which direction the Luther Strange voters go,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 2.7 percent margin of error.

Sen. Luther J. Strange III (R.-Ala.)  lost the Sept. 26 primary runoff to Moore with Strange securing 218,066 votes to Moore’s 262,204 votes.

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“Who are the voters, who are going to vote against Moore twice?” Kaplan asked.

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In the Aug. 15 Democratic primary, Jones secured 109,105 votes of the 165,006 votes cast, if all the Democrats vote for Jones, Moore needs to hold on to 97,199 Strange voters, or 45 percent of the Strange voters, if the turnout in this off-cycle winter election matches the turnout from the August contest for the Democrats and the September contest for the Republicans.

In the Nov. 14 Big League-Gravis poll, 64 percent of the Republicans who voted for Strange, roughly 140,000, said they would support Moore two days after the article in The Washington Post and 22 percent said they would vote for Jones.

Kaplan said Jones is getting 93 percent of Democrats, while Moore only gets 76 percent of Republicans.

Jones is also winning with self-identified Independents by more than 25 percent,” he said.

“This is third of four polls we are conducting in Alabama and another key is the undecided vote,” he said.

“When we saw the shift for Jones in the last poll, there was a movement of voters saying they were undecided, instead of coming out for Jones,” he said.

“In this poll, either Jones is winning in the poll or people are being dishonest, because they don’t want to admit that they are actually voting for Moore.”

The special election campaign to fill the Senate seat vacated by the Jefferson B. “Jeff” Sessions becoming President Donald J. Trump‘s attorney was shaken up by an article in The Washington Post, which shared accounts by four women, who claimed to have had sexually awkward relationships with Moore in their teens, while he was in his early 30s. One of the four women claimed that her encounter with Moore occurred when she was 14-years-old.

Forty-two percent of the respondents said they believe the accusations against Moore, but 34 percent said they do not and 24 percent said they were undecided.

Ninety-four percent of the poll participants said they had read about or heard about the accusations.

Moore is the choice of 48 percent of men and 39 percent of women, he said.

Jones is the choice of 46 percent of men and 51 percent of women, he said.

In the Nov. 14 Big League-Gravis poll Jones took a 47 percent to 42 percent lead over Moore, Kaplan said.

Forty-eight percent of the participants were Republicans, 33 percent were Democrats and 19 percent were Independents.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and online panel cell phone users and the results were weighted to match a proprietary voter model.

Check out the crosstabs for the poll here:
Crosstabs for Dec. 1 through Dec. 3 Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll

Former vice president Joseph R. Biden Jr. is one of the only national Democrats cleared to campaign for G. Douglas Jones. (Photo courtesy of Jones Facebook)

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Big League Polls

Poll: Fake News Distorts Trump/Ukraine/Biden Controversy, But the Public Isn’t Buying It

A fake news reporter for the Washington Post laments that the propaganda isn’t working so well.

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A majority of the U.S. public does not believe or does not know if President Donald Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a recent opinion poll conducted by Monmouth University.

Washington Post fake news hack Aaron Blake lamented about these findings, and the fact that a similar number of people feel that Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to drop an investigation of his son.

Blake released a whining tweet about the matter on Tuesday:

While Blake claims that the allegation about Trump has an “official rough transcript to support it,” the actual contents of the conversation never showed that any pressure took place. Trump simply asked the Ukraine to help investigate corruption, and assist him in his ongoing quest to drain the swamp.

“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike … I guess you have one of your wealthy people… The server, they say Ukraine has it,” Trump said to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me,” Trump added.

“Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament, the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September,” Zelensky responded. “He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue.”

“On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us, it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we administer justice in our country,” Zelensky added.

“I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it,” Trump responded. “I’m sure you will figure it out. I heard the prosecutor was treated very badly and he was a very fair prosecutor so good luck with everything.”

At the same time, Blake has the nerve to say that it is a “highly speculative, dubious claim” that Biden used his power to influence the Ukrainian government to drop an investigation related to his son, Hunter, when he testified on video that he did it in 2016:

Big League Politics reported last week that additional documents have indicated that a wider conspiracy was hatched by Democratic Party operatives to prevent justice from occurring in the Ukraine:

Journalist John Solomon at The Hill obtained a sworn affidavit containing Shokin’s witness statement that was prepared for European court. In the document, Shokin claims he was told that the reason he was fired was due to Biden’s objections to his investigation over Burisma.

“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings, a natural gas firm active in Ukraine and Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board of Directors,” Shokin testified…

Solomon also pointed to documents he obtained from Burisma’s team of lawyers in America to back up Shokin’s testimony. The firm’s accounting records show that Burisma gave tens of thousands of dollars to Blue Star Strategies, a public relations and lobbying group that had Hunter Biden on its board.

Blue Star Strategies is run by former administration officials who served under President Bill Clinton, Karen Tramontano and Sally Painter. Painter had a meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington D.C. where she lobbied to meet government officials in Ukraine.

“With regards to the meetings in Kiev, I suggest that you wait until the next week when there is an expected vote of the government’s reshuffle,” Ukrainian embassy employee Oksana Shulyar wrote in an email to Painter following the meeting.

Ukraine’s Washington embassy denies that talk of the “reshuffle” had anything to do with Shokin’s firing. Blue Star also paid a Ukrainian official who they asked for help in scheduling meetings with Ukraine’s prosecutors about the Burisma investigation, according to memos obtained by Solomon.

Blue Star also worked with criminal defense attorney John Buretta. Buretta helped set up a meeting with interim prosecutor Yuriy Sevruk with Tramontano and Painter. The trio apologized for a disinformation campaign that was circulating about Shokin, presumably as apart of the campaign to get him fired.

“They realized that the information disseminated in the U.S. was incorrect and that they would facilitate my visit to the U.S. for the purpose of delivering the true information to the State Department management,” a memo about the meeting stated.

The fake news is angry that they cannot spin away this scandal against the Democrats’ front-runner to challenge for the presidency in 2020, as Biden appears to be obviously guilty of the crimes that they are accusing Trump of committing.

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