Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Roy Moore clings to slim lead over Doug Jones, 48% to 46%

Republican Roy S. Moore and Democrat G. Douglas Jones, candidates in the Dec. 12, 2017 Alabama Senate special election. (File photos)

Democratic Alabama Senate nominee G. Douglas Jones with support of 46 percent of respondents has closed within two percentage points of Republican Roy S. Moore with 48 percent, in the wake of the Nov. 9 report that roughly 40 years ago, Moore had sexually-tinged encounters with at least four women, including one who was then 14-years-old, according to the Big League-Gravis poll of 478 likely voters conducted Nov. 10.

“Moore was ahead in other polls and seemed like he was cruising for an easy win, but this story in The Washington Post has been a heavy blow to Moore,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Moore and Jones are campaigning to fill the unexpired term of Attorney General Jefferson B. “Jeff” Session in the Dec. 12 special election.

“Moore’s task is to convince voters who do not believe him or trust him to vote for him because they agree with him on the issues,” Kaplan said.

“There are still large numbers of voters, who are undecided and trying to figure out how to react,” he said.

“What Moore does in the next few days is critical, people agree with him on the issues, but they certainly recoil at the details of what these women told The Post,” he said.

“Thirty-nine percent of the voters in the poll believe the four women and 36 percent believe Judge Moore, who has denied all the charges, but he did admit he knew some of the women,” he said.

Friday, Moore issued a blanket denial: “I have never provided alcohol to minors, and I have never engaged in sexual misconduct. As a father of a daughter and a grandfather of five granddaughters, I condemn the actions of any man who engages in sexual misconduct not just against minors but against any woman.”

Asked: Do you believe The Washington Post did the right thing in publishing these accusations? Forty-two percent said yes and 38 percent said no and 19 percent were undecided.

Asked: Do you trust Roy Moore? Forty-three percent said no and 40 percent said yes with 17 percent undecided.

Asked: Do you believe these accusations about Roy Moore? Forty percent said they believe accusations and 43 percent said they do not.

Whether or not one believes Moore’s denials depends on party identity.

Among Republicans, 62 percent believe Moore and 12 percent do not. Among Democrats, 13 percent believe Moore compared to 53 percent of Democrats, who said they do not believe him.

Thirty-six percent of women believe Moore and 37 percent do not.

Forty-three percent of men believe Moore and 26 percent do not.

Forty-eight of the poll participants were Republicans and 33 percent of the participants are Democrats.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.

Check out the whole poll results here:

Complete Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll (November 10, 2017) v2

Check out the poll’s crosstabs here:

Crosstabs by question – Table Format 2


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