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Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Roy Moore clings to slim lead over Doug Jones, 48% to 46%

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Democratic Alabama Senate nominee G. Douglas Jones with support of 46 percent of respondents has closed within two percentage points of Republican Roy S. Moore with 48 percent, in the wake of the Nov. 9 report that roughly 40 years ago, Moore had sexually-tinged encounters with at least four women, including one who was then 14-years-old, according to the Big League-Gravis poll of 478 likely voters conducted Nov. 10.

“Moore was ahead in other polls and seemed like he was cruising for an easy win, but this story in The Washington Post has been a heavy blow to Moore,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Moore and Jones are campaigning to fill the unexpired term of Attorney General Jefferson B. “Jeff” Session in the Dec. 12 special election.

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“Moore’s task is to convince voters who do not believe him or trust him to vote for him because they agree with him on the issues,” Kaplan said.

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“There are still large numbers of voters, who are undecided and trying to figure out how to react,” he said.

“What Moore does in the next few days is critical, people agree with him on the issues, but they certainly recoil at the details of what these women told The Post,” he said.

“Thirty-nine percent of the voters in the poll believe the four women and 36 percent believe Judge Moore, who has denied all the charges, but he did admit he knew some of the women,” he said.

Friday, Moore issued a blanket denial: “I have never provided alcohol to minors, and I have never engaged in sexual misconduct. As a father of a daughter and a grandfather of five granddaughters, I condemn the actions of any man who engages in sexual misconduct not just against minors but against any woman.”

Asked: Do you believe The Washington Post did the right thing in publishing these accusations? Forty-two percent said yes and 38 percent said no and 19 percent were undecided.

Asked: Do you trust Roy Moore? Forty-three percent said no and 40 percent said yes with 17 percent undecided.

Asked: Do you believe these accusations about Roy Moore? Forty percent said they believe accusations and 43 percent said they do not.

Whether or not one believes Moore’s denials depends on party identity.

Among Republicans, 62 percent believe Moore and 12 percent do not. Among Democrats, 13 percent believe Moore compared to 53 percent of Democrats, who said they do not believe him.

Thirty-six percent of women believe Moore and 37 percent do not.

Forty-three percent of men believe Moore and 26 percent do not.

Forty-eight of the poll participants were Republicans and 33 percent of the participants are Democrats.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.

Check out the whole poll results here:

Complete Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll (November 10, 2017) v2

Check out the poll’s crosstabs here:

Crosstabs by question – Table Format 2

CROSSTABS – AL v2

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White Pill: Montana House Moves Constitutional Carry Bill Forward

Constitutional Carry is one ray of hope for the Right.

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On January 20, 2021, the Montana House of Representatives passed Constitutional Carry legislation, HB102.

Dean Weingarten of Ammoland.com reported that the bill passed by a 66 to 31 margin.

Weingarten provided some context to the significance of this bill’s progress:

The bill is the accumulation of a decade and a half of struggle against Democrat Governors, who have repeatedly vetoed reform legislation passed with large majorities in the legislature. Numerous sections in the bill show the Montana legislature has learned the lesson from other states as they restore the right to keep and bear arms.

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Montana’s Senate is made up of 31 Republicans and 19 Democrats and Governor Greg Gianforte is a Republican, so the passage of this bill augurs well.  If passed, HB102 would make Montana the 17th Constitutional Carry state.

Montana is already a very gun-friendly state, and represents a low-hanging fruit for Second Amendment activists to tap into.

Constitutional Carry has been one of the most successful movements on the Right over the past twenty years. It’s easy to complain about the corrupt status quo, but there are still plenty of ways right-wingers can score victories. Constitutional Carry is one of them.

It would behoove the Right to analyze existing trends and build off movements that are already producing results. There’s no need to embark on quixotic campaigns that end up being total fools’ errands. Find what’s already working and run with it.

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