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Big League-Gravis Poll: Murphy leads Guadagno in N.J. governor 46% to 32%

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Former Goldman Sachs banker and Democrat Phillip D. Murphy leads New Jersey Republican Lt. Gov. Kimberly A. Guadagno in the race to be the next governor of the Garden State with 46 percent of voters supporting him compared to her 32 percent in the Big League-Gravis poll of 611 registered voters conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1.

“I would expect some tightening of the race going into the last week, just because it is the nature of Republicans to come home at the end, but Murphy has been ahead for so long, it is a pretty safe bet that he beats Guadagno,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a 4 percent of a margin of error.

The election is Nov. 7.

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Kaplan said the 2017 race is the reverse of the 2013 race, when Republican Gov. Christopher J. Christie won his second term.

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“It is hard to remember now, but four years ago, Christie was still basking in his handling of the recovery from Super Storm Sandy and his walk on the beach with President Barack Obama,” he said.

“In this poll, only 15 percent of the voters approve of Christie’s job performance and 71 percent disapprove,” Kaplan said.

“In 2013, Christie won 60 percent of the vote in another race that was practically over as soon as it started,” he said. Christie beat Democrat Barbara Buono, who garnered 38 percent.

“The Christie win in 2013 could have been a watershed, because Christie got 20 percent of the black vote and more than half of the Hispanic vote,” he said. “Instead of building the New Jersey GOP on the foundation of his landslide, Christie ran for president and allowed the electoral loyalties in the states to revert to their old defaults.”

The survey was conducted using interactive voice response and an outline panel of cell phone users. The results were weighted to match a proprietary voter demographic model.

Crosstabs for the Oct. 30 – Nov. 1 Big League-Gravis Poll:
CROSSTABS FORMAT 1

 

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POLL: Trump is Neck and Neck With Biden in Florida

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President Donald Trump has just taken the lead for the first time in Florida, according to a RealClearPolitics poll released on October 27, 2020, despite Democrats lead in early voting.

The website’s average of polls shows that Trump holds a razor thin 0.4 percent advantage over his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. About 2.7 million Democrats have already cast their ballots in the Sunshine State, a narrow lead over the approximately 2.4 million Republicans who voted early. Approximately 1.3 million Floridians cast votes without any party affiliation.

Florida is an electorally crucial state. Democrats have won the general election only twice without winning Florida since 1860. John Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 and Bill Clinton in 1992 without picking up Florida.

Trump beat Hilary Clinton by a razor thin 1.2 percent margin in 2016.

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However, there might be a recent twist in the nature of the Florida battle. On October 28, 2020, RealClearPolitics noted that race between Trump and Biden is effectively tied. These numbers will likely fluctuate from here until November 3, 2020.

Florida is rather interesting because of its Caribbean Hispanic voting demographic, which does not vote as solidly Democrat as other Hispanic groups in the state. Trump’s nationalist message has likely made inroads with this demographic, along with working class whites in Florida’s Panhandle.

Trump must continue positioning himself as the sole nationalist candidate in this race. Campaigning as a generic Conservatism Inc. candidate will put voters to sleep and likely threaten Trump’s chances in the Sunshine State.  Trump should take note and ignore all conventional wisdom.

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