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Big League-Gravis Virginia Poll: Democrat Northam holds lead over Republican Gillespie, 48% to 43%

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Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam continues to lead Republican Edward W. Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race with 48 percent compared to 43 percent for Gillespie, according to a Big League-Gravis p0ll poll of 1,788 registered voters conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 5.

“In the last day of our last poll we saw Gillespie pick up three points, so we wanted to do a new poll to capture what seemed to be a late Gillespie surge that stopped over the weekend,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a 2.3 percent margin of error.

Libertarian Cliff Hydra has the support of 3 percent of the voters with 7 percent undecided, he said. With roundings, the totals exceed 100 percent. Election Day is Nov. 7.

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“What is tricky about polling an off-cycle, because the temptation is the use the turnout model from the presidential campaign the year before, but it is not the same,” Kaplan said.

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“In Virginia, Republicans have a stronger tradition of showing up to vote, but a Republican has won a statewide election since 2009,” he said. “That year the Republicans were catching the early ramping up of the Tea Party wave and Bob McDonnell won the governor’s race with his ‘Bob’s for Jobs’ slogan–that was a long time ago.”

Kaplan said that among “Very Likely” voters, Northam leads Gillespie with 50 percent to Gillespie’s 45 percent.

Gillespie won a tight primary with the one-time state chairman of the 2016 Trump campaign Corey Stewart, with 44 percent to Stewart’s 43 percent.

A source familiar with the relationship between Stewart and Gillespie, but not authorized to speak to the media, told Big League Politics that Gillespie has refused all of Stewart’s offers to help.

The source said Stewart, who is the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, repeatedly made himself availble to Gillespie, but the answer was always “no thanks,” if there was a reply at all.

Gillespie wants to win it on his own without owning anyone, which means he is also willing to lose, rather than accept help from the Bannon-Trump wing of the state party, the source said.

“Diehl is completely different,” the source said. “Diehl and Corey always talking and Corey has helped him a lot,” the source said. Massachusetts Republican state Rep. Geoffrey G. Diehl is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D.-Mass.) in 2018. Diehl was the chairman of Trump’s Bay State campaign.

Stewart is challenging Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (D-Va.) in 2018.

Thirty-nine percent of the respondents were Democrats, 34 percent were Republicans and 27 percent identified as Independent.

Fifty-three percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of President Donald J. Trump with 36 percent saying they had a favorable opinion.

Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Democrat Gov. Terence R. McAuliffe with 37 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion.

In the other races, Democrat Attorney General Mark R. Herring leads Republican John Adams, 47 percent to 42 percent and Republican state Sen. Jill H. Vogel trails Democrat Justin Fairfax, with 41 percent to 46 percent for Fairfax.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.

Check out the poll’s crosstabs here:

CROSSTABS FORMAT 1 (1)

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Big League Polls

Poll: Fake News Distorts Trump/Ukraine/Biden Controversy, But the Public Isn’t Buying It

A fake news reporter for the Washington Post laments that the propaganda isn’t working so well.

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A majority of the U.S. public does not believe or does not know if President Donald Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a recent opinion poll conducted by Monmouth University.

Washington Post fake news hack Aaron Blake lamented about these findings, and the fact that a similar number of people feel that Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to drop an investigation of his son.

Blake released a whining tweet about the matter on Tuesday:

While Blake claims that the allegation about Trump has an “official rough transcript to support it,” the actual contents of the conversation never showed that any pressure took place. Trump simply asked the Ukraine to help investigate corruption, and assist him in his ongoing quest to drain the swamp.

“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike … I guess you have one of your wealthy people… The server, they say Ukraine has it,” Trump said to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me,” Trump added.

“Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament, the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September,” Zelensky responded. “He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue.”

“On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us, it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we administer justice in our country,” Zelensky added.

“I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it,” Trump responded. “I’m sure you will figure it out. I heard the prosecutor was treated very badly and he was a very fair prosecutor so good luck with everything.”

At the same time, Blake has the nerve to say that it is a “highly speculative, dubious claim” that Biden used his power to influence the Ukrainian government to drop an investigation related to his son, Hunter, when he testified on video that he did it in 2016:

Big League Politics reported last week that additional documents have indicated that a wider conspiracy was hatched by Democratic Party operatives to prevent justice from occurring in the Ukraine:

Journalist John Solomon at The Hill obtained a sworn affidavit containing Shokin’s witness statement that was prepared for European court. In the document, Shokin claims he was told that the reason he was fired was due to Biden’s objections to his investigation over Burisma.

“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings, a natural gas firm active in Ukraine and Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board of Directors,” Shokin testified…

Solomon also pointed to documents he obtained from Burisma’s team of lawyers in America to back up Shokin’s testimony. The firm’s accounting records show that Burisma gave tens of thousands of dollars to Blue Star Strategies, a public relations and lobbying group that had Hunter Biden on its board.

Blue Star Strategies is run by former administration officials who served under President Bill Clinton, Karen Tramontano and Sally Painter. Painter had a meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington D.C. where she lobbied to meet government officials in Ukraine.

“With regards to the meetings in Kiev, I suggest that you wait until the next week when there is an expected vote of the government’s reshuffle,” Ukrainian embassy employee Oksana Shulyar wrote in an email to Painter following the meeting.

Ukraine’s Washington embassy denies that talk of the “reshuffle” had anything to do with Shokin’s firing. Blue Star also paid a Ukrainian official who they asked for help in scheduling meetings with Ukraine’s prosecutors about the Burisma investigation, according to memos obtained by Solomon.

Blue Star also worked with criminal defense attorney John Buretta. Buretta helped set up a meeting with interim prosecutor Yuriy Sevruk with Tramontano and Painter. The trio apologized for a disinformation campaign that was circulating about Shokin, presumably as apart of the campaign to get him fired.

“They realized that the information disseminated in the U.S. was incorrect and that they would facilitate my visit to the U.S. for the purpose of delivering the true information to the State Department management,” a memo about the meeting stated.

The fake news is angry that they cannot spin away this scandal against the Democrats’ front-runner to challenge for the presidency in 2020, as Biden appears to be obviously guilty of the crimes that they are accusing Trump of committing.

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