Please disable your Ad Blocker to better interact with this website.

Connect with us

2018 Midterms

DATA: Blue States Getting Redder and Red States Getting Redder

Published

on

October’s voter registration changes measured against last November continue to show Republican strength, almost across the board. Certainly in the “battleground” states, the Democrats are looking at a very bleak picture. A reminder that these are net changes—some states have seen voter registration increases, some decreases as rolls are purged—but the key is the net gain or loss of one party against the other. Also, keep in mind Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas and Georgia, to name a few, do not register by party so it is impossible to track the changes in those states. However, with that in mind . . . .

*AZ Rs net +11,160
Both parties gained, and the Republican edge was down slightly from last look, but still holding very strong. So much for Arizona “going purple.” If this rate of changes holds, Arizona Republicans could have a net gain of an additional 25,000 voters by election time in 2018.

*CO Ds net +1298 This represents a continuation of the trend in Colorado that was surprisingly interrupted by a nearly flat month last period. It appears the Colorado Democrat march is back on track and, with Delaware and New Jersey, are the only real “battleground” states I’ve been tracking that is trending D. But only Colorado in the past several elections has truly been considered a battleground.

*DE Ds net +651
Delaware is an odd state in that both parties gained slightly, and the D gain of 651 is a small increase from last month.

Trending: EXPOSED: Peter Strzok Grew Up In Iran, Worked As Obama and Brennan’s Envoy To Iranian Regime

*FL Rs net +61,857 Since the election, Republicans have seen a net shift of nearly 62,000 in their direction. This represents a further net gain of about 6,000 since my last report, meaning that Republicans are gaining ground at the rate of about 6,000 per month. If this were to hold through 2020, Florida would be a Republican state.

*IA Rs net +70,801 Democrats can pretty well forget about Iowa, a state Obama carried and George W. Bush lost. This massive level of change bodes extremely well for neighboring Wisconsin and Minnesota, where we cannot track these changes, but which have some of the same demographics.

*NC Rs net +61,752 This is up another 1,000 since last month, and shows the Tar Heel State continues to turn back to the Republican Party as the Democrats are losing significant registrations. When combined with the 2016 3% black voting shortfall, North Carolina presents another bleak picture for the Democrats in the near future.

*NJ Ds net +14,000 This was a shocker, but I was reminded that there is a major Democrat voter registration drive on for the governor’s race. Last report had the Garden State closing quite a bit.

*NM Rs net +12,975 New Mexico continues its Republican trend, up 165 over last month. But every month has shown steady net Republican gains. Given that there likely won’t be a Gary Johnson in the race in 2020, New Mexico is absolutely in the toss up column right now, and by 2020 could be lean Republican.

*NV Rs net +8,338 Since the last report, Republicans gained another net 600. Yet another state where Republicans are slowly and steadily chipping away at the Democrat registration advantage, and another state where Johnson won’t be around to bail out the Democrat.

And the biggie:
*PA Rs net +109,101 Pennsylvania’s shocking march away from the Democrats is breathtaking: Democrats were down another 22,000 since last month and Republicans are surging. Once again, Pennsylvania’s numbers likely speak to Michigan.

And, a reminder that in my last report, NH was R net +6,511 and ME was R net +1,201.

In short, among the truly contested states in 2016, the only ray of hope for the Democrats is Colorado, and even there, the trends have flattened some. They have stabilized New Jersey and Delaware, but Republicans continue to gain significant ground in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and above all, Pennsylvania. If these trends continue through 2020, Florida would be have a slight Republican registration edge, North Carolina would be nearly even, and New Mexico would be close enough that it could never be taken for granted. Moreover, Pennsylvania and Iowa would be solid Trump states.

The remarkable thing about the Republican trending states is that they have moved steadily ever since last November, in almost every case without a single break. Democrats continue to lose voters, and they are not becoming independents. All of this appears to be due to Trump and Trump alone, as the Republican Party has not offered any reasons to embrace it.

 

Join the conversation!

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.

2018 Midterms

Georgia Gubernatorial Candidate Insults Voters: ‘This Primary About Who Can Be The Craziest’

Published

on

A bold strategy.

A candidate for governor in Georgia was caught on tape insulting voters this week, adding to mounting difficulties for his campaign.

“This primary felt like it was [about] who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest,” said Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle on a recorded tape.

The recording was released by Cagle’s primary opponent, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp.

In a recording from the same conversation last month, Cagle could be heard pushing legislation he did not favor in order to deprive another political candidate of “millions of dollars of support.”

“They wanted that $100 million Student Scholarship Organizations,” Cagle said in the recording. “And, you know, I was the only guy standing in the way. Is it bad public policy? Between you and me, it is. I can tell you how it is a thousand different ways.”

President Donald J. Trump endorsed Cagle’s opponent Wednesday, adding to his problems.

“Brian Kemp is running for Governor of the great state of Georgia,” he said. “The Primary is on Tuesday. Brian is tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment. I give him my full and total endorsement.”

The primary run-off is July 24.

Cagle’s office did not return a request for comment in time for publication.

Continue Reading

Latest Articles

Our Privacy Policy has been updated to support the latest regulations.Click to learn more.×

Thanks for sharing!

We invite you to become a Big League Politics insider. Sign up for our free email newsletter, and we'll make sure to keep you in the loop.

Send this to a friend