The latest NPR/PBS/Marist generic ballot shows Democrats leading the GOP by 10 points in in the midterm House of Representatives races, but vastly over-samples Democrats and Independents.
“A new poll released Friday showed Democrats lead Republicans by double-digits on a generic congressional ballot less than two weeks before November’s midterm elections,” said The Hill, echoing other left-leaning news outlets regarding the poll
But a look at the data behind the poll tells a much different story.
First, 33 percent of respondents polled were Democrats, and only 26 percent were Republicans. Another 41 percent polled were either independent or “other.”
Suffice to say this sample does not accurately represent the voter breakdown in most House races around the nation. This close to the actual midterm elections, which will be held in eight days, undecided voters are hard to come by. Sampling 41% of voters who identify as independent, meaning that they could vote either way, is purely dishonest.
Additionally, early voting reflects that Republican turnout is actually much higher than Democrat turnout in key states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas. Republicans are also closing the gap in Nevada.
Democrat over-sampling in national polls is precisely the reason that the “expert” pundits in media were shocked when President Donald J. Trump handily won the 2016 presidential election. They trusted the bogus polls, and lost. The similarities between recent polls and those from the last national elections are stunning.
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