The latest NPR/PBS/Marist generic ballot shows Democrats leading the GOP by 10 points in in the midterm House of Representatives races, but vastly over-samples Democrats and Independents.
“A new poll released Friday showed Democrats lead Republicans by double-digits on a generic congressional ballot less than two weeks before November’s midterm elections,” said The Hill, echoing other left-leaning news outlets regarding the poll
But a look at the data behind the poll tells a much different story.
First, 33 percent of respondents polled were Democrats, and only 26 percent were Republicans. Another 41 percent polled were either independent or “other.”
Suffice to say this sample does not accurately represent the voter breakdown in most House races around the nation. This close to the actual midterm elections, which will be held in eight days, undecided voters are hard to come by. Sampling 41% of voters who identify as independent, meaning that they could vote either way, is purely dishonest.
Additionally, early voting reflects that Republican turnout is actually much higher than Democrat turnout in key states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas. Republicans are also closing the gap in Nevada.
Democrat over-sampling in national polls is precisely the reason that the “expert” pundits in media were shocked when President Donald J. Trump handily won the 2016 presidential election. They trusted the bogus polls, and lost. The similarities between recent polls and those from the last national elections are stunning.
POLL: Trump is Neck and Neck With Biden in Florida
President Donald Trump has just taken the lead for the first time in Florida, according to a RealClearPolitics poll released on October 27, 2020, despite Democrats lead in early voting.
The website’s average of polls shows that Trump holds a razor thin 0.4 percent advantage over his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. About 2.7 million Democrats have already cast their ballots in the Sunshine State, a narrow lead over the approximately 2.4 million Republicans who voted early. Approximately 1.3 million Floridians cast votes without any party affiliation.
Florida is an electorally crucial state. Democrats have won the general election only twice without winning Florida since 1860. John Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 and Bill Clinton in 1992 without picking up Florida.
Trump beat Hilary Clinton by a razor thin 1.2 percent margin in 2016.
However, there might be a recent twist in the nature of the Florida battle. On October 28, 2020, RealClearPolitics noted that race between Trump and Biden is effectively tied. These numbers will likely fluctuate from here until November 3, 2020.
Florida is rather interesting because of its Caribbean Hispanic voting demographic, which does not vote as solidly Democrat as other Hispanic groups in the state. Trump’s nationalist message has likely made inroads with this demographic, along with working class whites in Florida’s Panhandle.
Trump must continue positioning himself as the sole nationalist candidate in this race. Campaigning as a generic Conservatism Inc. candidate will put voters to sleep and likely threaten Trump’s chances in the Sunshine State. Trump should take note and ignore all conventional wisdom.
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