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Epidemiologist Behind Famous Wuhan Virus Model Lowers Original Projection

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Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who gained international attention for creating the highly-cited Imperial College London Wuhan virus model which The New York Times has referenced and has played a major role in influencing governments worldwide, put forward a significantly downgraded projection of the expected death toll on Wednesday, March 25, 2020.

According to Ferguson’s original model, 2.2 million people were expected to die in the United States and 500,000 in the United Kingdom from the Wuhan Virus if no action was taken to slow the spread of the virus and soften the curve. The model estimated significantly fewer deaths if lockdown measures were implemented.

Following one day of mandatory lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is now putting forward downgraded estimates. He credited the lockdown policies, but also revealed that far more people have contracted the virus than his team expected.

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Ferguson clarified, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”

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A higher rate of transmission than expected signifies that more people have contracted the virus than previously estimated. When the number of individuals with the Wuhan Virus is divided by the number of deaths, the mortality rate for the virus falls.

According to a report from the New Scientist on March 25, 2020, 20,000 people or fewer will die from the Wuhan virus based on the new lockdown procedures and the new projections. Hospitals are also expected to be able to take in Wuhan Virus patients without problems.

Ferguson’s modifications came days following Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta critique of the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta declared, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta was in charge of a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which hints at the virus being invisibly spread for at least a month earlier than expected. The study concluded that up to half of the people in the United Kingdom have already contracted the Wuhan Virus.

If Gupta’s model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve contracted the Wuhan Virus become sick enough require hospitalization, which leaves the overwhelming majority with mild cases or free of symptoms of the virus.

Ferguson made a statement on social media on Thursday to “clear up confusion” about his modified estimates:

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

 

 

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The White House Walks Back From DACA Deal…. For Now

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Emerald Robinson, the Newsmax White House Correspondent, reported that White House advisor Jared Kushner is holding meetings on a potential DACA amnesty deal.

She tweeted, “BREAKING: sources confirm that White House advisor Jared Kushner has been holding meetings on DACA amnesty deal – with a goal of getting it done before the 2020 election.”

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For many America First activists, Kushner has played a subversive role in the Trump administration by recommending milquetoast policies that maintain the open border status quo and are soft on crime.

Many speculate that Kushner is largely the individual who is advising President Trump to take a soft approach against the looters rampaging across the country.

Now there are reports that the White House is backing away from this DACA deal per a report from Breitbart News.

However, grassroots immigration patriots such as Maria Espinoza, the co-founder of the Remembrance Project, had choice words for this rumored move by Jared Kushner.

She told BLP:

Donald Trump’s promise to The Remembrance Project’s angel moms, dads, and angel families of ‘Stolen Lives’ was to deport illegal aliens and keep American families safe. No family should suffer the killing of their loved one at the hands of an individual who should not have been in our country in the first place.

Any talks taking place should be about keeping us safe so that our families, businesses and communities can thrive.  It’s heartless for Kushner to even hold talks of amnesty.

Espinoza added:

Kushner, an unelected individual, certainly should not negotiate to keep illegal aliens in our country!  Illegals, by the way who have shown no regard for our laws, and have had ample time to become legal continue to snub our law.
A Kushner Amnesty for illegal alien DACA recipients will ensure that millions of Americans will stay home in November, which will quash President Trump’s re-election.

DACA refers to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, a United States immigration policy where some illegal aliens who were brought to the country as children in order to obtain a renewable two-period of deferred action from deportation and receive eligibility for work permits in the U.S.

Back in 2014, President Barack Obama revealed his intention to broaden DACA provisions to cover even more illegal alien immigrants.

This is in contrast to the Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act. Under the DREAM Act, illegal aliens would be granted temporary conditional residency that includes the right to work if they were brought to the United States as minors. If they meet additional qualifications, they would be able to receive permanent residency.

Although these kinds of proposals are different, they’re all a part of a mass migration agenda designed to undermine the Historic American Nation.

Kushner and his ilk believe that offering reasonable compromises will somehow placate the Left.

In reality, such compromises will only further embolden them, given the fact that the voting patterns of these groups overwhelmingly favor the political Left and its many pet projects such as the destruction of the right to bear arms.

Although the DACA threat may be contained for now, as long as Open Borders Inc and its many factions continue operating, there will always be a looming threat of legal migration expansion, amnesty, or backdoor amnesties.

This is why it’s so important that America First patriots score major victories in all branches of government.

The time to engage in political discourse is over. Now, we must force politicians to go on record via roll call votes. From there, we’ll know who’s America First or America Last.

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