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Campaign 2020

Mike Bloomberg Counting on Contested Convention To Grab Democratic Nomination

Bloomberg isn’t planning on winning a majority of delegates.

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Mike Bloomberg is counting on a contested convention as his path to winning the Democratic nomination.

The former Mayor of New York City outright admitted that such an event is the “only way I can win” in an interview with NBC on Monday.

The ultrabillionaire declined to predict if he’d win any states at all during the interview. His admission of a brokered strategy convention could be proof enough that he realizes Joe Biden has consolidated the lane of moderate Democratic voters he hoped to marshal when announcing his late-stage bid for President.

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Bloomberg’s strategy is reminiscent of that of John Kasich’s 2016 campaign for the Republican nomination, which counted on being handed the nomination at the convention after only winning one state during the primary process.

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Talk of contested and brokered conventions surfaces almost every election cycle, but a true contested major party convention hasn’t actually occurred since 1952. The prospect of a contested convention isn’t impossible this time, as a crowded late field of Democratic candidates could mean no candidate obtains the 50% of delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot.

The strongest indication that a brokered convention campaign strategy might actually be viable is the stated preferences of the Democratic Party’s ‘superdelegates,’ party elites who have voting powers divorced from the democratic primary and caucus process. Queries of the establishment-friendly superdelegates have already revealed the party elites are chomping at the bit at the prospect of blocking a potential Bernie Sanders nomination, even if the democratic socialist leads with a plurality of delegates.

Bloomberg would have to convince the superdelegates to support him instead of Biden. In any case, it’s rather sad that a nominally ‘major’ party candidate such as Bloomberg is openly pinning his campaign strategy on byzantine convention tactics instead of appealing to the voting public.

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Campaign 2020

POLL: 15% of Sanders Supporters Plan to Vote For Donald Trump in November

They prefer Trump to an establishment Democrat.

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New polling from ABC suggests that Donald Trump is primed to win over a significant share of Bernie Sanders primary voters in the November general election, suggesting that some of Bernie’s Bros don’t intend to bend the knee to likely establishment Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The poll reveals that 15% of self-identifying Bernie Sanders supporters already plan on voting for Trump in November. President Trump ultimately ended up winning the votes of 12% of 2016 Sanders supporters, suggesting he’s increased his appeal to the democratic socialist’s supporters.

Some centrist Democrats have expressed their personal distaste of Sanders(and some Gabbard) supporters on account of their perceived unwillingness to vote for the Democratic nominee, forgetting that it’s the obligation of American political candidates to win the votes of citizens who chose to support their opponents in primaries.

While Trump and Sanders are on opposite ends of the American political spectrum, they could be compared in a sense that they’re both considered political populists. Trump’s policy positions on trade, some foreign policy, and American manufacturing are closer to the Sanders’ views than Joe Biden’s reheated neoliberal political program.

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Perhaps even more significantly, the poll shows that Biden gauges the lowest ever recorded “enthusiasm level” for a Democratic Presidential nominee. A paltry 24% of likely Biden voters describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” to vote for him in November.

With a voter base that seems lethargic in an unprecedented fashion, it’s possible that Joe Biden could go down as the most “low energy” major Presidential candidate in recent American political history.

The poll’s general election survey reveals a tight contest between Biden and Trump, with the former Vice President leading within the margin of error by 49% to 47%. Trump’s polling has improved significantly in recent weeks in ABC’s surveys, in part because of high public approval of the federal response to the Chinese coronavirus epidemic.

Biden seems to have largely disappeared from the national conversation in the wake of the historical epidemic, only sparsely appearing on public broadcasts in bizarre gaffe-filled livestreams from a converted recreation room in his Delaware home.

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