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Campaign 2020

Mike Bloomberg Counting on Contested Convention To Grab Democratic Nomination

Bloomberg isn’t planning on winning a majority of delegates.

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Mike Bloomberg is counting on a contested convention as his path to winning the Democratic nomination.

The former Mayor of New York City outright admitted that such an event is the “only way I can win” in an interview with NBC on Monday.

The ultrabillionaire declined to predict if he’d win any states at all during the interview. His admission of a brokered strategy convention could be proof enough that he realizes Joe Biden has consolidated the lane of moderate Democratic voters he hoped to marshal when announcing his late-stage bid for President.

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Bloomberg’s strategy is reminiscent of that of John Kasich’s 2016 campaign for the Republican nomination, which counted on being handed the nomination at the convention after only winning one state during the primary process.

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Talk of contested and brokered conventions surfaces almost every election cycle, but a true contested major party convention hasn’t actually occurred since 1952. The prospect of a contested convention isn’t impossible this time, as a crowded late field of Democratic candidates could mean no candidate obtains the 50% of delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot.

The strongest indication that a brokered convention campaign strategy might actually be viable is the stated preferences of the Democratic Party’s ‘superdelegates,’ party elites who have voting powers divorced from the democratic primary and caucus process. Queries of the establishment-friendly superdelegates have already revealed the party elites are chomping at the bit at the prospect of blocking a potential Bernie Sanders nomination, even if the democratic socialist leads with a plurality of delegates.

Bloomberg would have to convince the superdelegates to support him instead of Biden. In any case, it’s rather sad that a nominally ‘major’ party candidate such as Bloomberg is openly pinning his campaign strategy on byzantine convention tactics instead of appealing to the voting public.

Campaign 2020

Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election

This is even more important than polls.

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The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.

Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania Republicans Outpacing Democrats in New Voter Registration By 135,000

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Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.

President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.

Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.

The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.

If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.

These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.

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