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Campaign 2020

New Michigan Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden by Two Points, John James Beating Gary Peters by One Point

Michigan is very much in contention.

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President Donald Trump continues to gain momentum in the polls, closing the gap in the state of Michigan and his success appears to be cascading down the ballot as well.

Polling firm Trafalgar Group, who boasts as being the “most accurate pollster of the cycle” of 2018, has Trump beating Biden by a narrow 47 to 45 margin, with Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen getting 3 percent of the support.

The poll also shows John James, the African-American veteran running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican, with a one point lead over his opponent, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters. James reportedly leads Peters by a 48-47 margin. These results were collected from Aug. 14 to 23.

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While these results may be close, they show that Michigan is definitely in play as a battleground state for 2020. Michigan is one of the states that President Trump surprisingly won in 2016, as part of his unexpected domination of the Rust Belt.

Big League Politics reported earlier this month about how Trump was quickly bridging the gap in the polls with Biden:

New polls for the November presidential election are gravitating in President Donald Trump’s direction, after months of polling that indicated Democratic challenger Joe Biden was dominating the race.

Polls from Rasmussen and the Hill have indicated that the race is close, and even within the margin of error, with the President regaining several percentage points. Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics reveals that recent polls show the President has gained 3-5 percent support.

Polls in battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania show a race that is statistically tied. A Zogby Analytics poll of North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania showed a razor-thin race in the latter three states, with Biden leading by no more than three percentage points in all of them.

Trump’s gain in recent rounds of polling may be a product of a refocused campaign strategy, with the President branching out to the constituency of white working class voters that proved essential to his shock 2016 election victory after former campaign manager Brad Parscale was reassigned.

Razor-thin election margins could mean the election is once again decided by the electoral college, as Biden’s lead in national polling places undue consideration on large margins of victory in reliably Democratic states such as California and New York.

Democrats are pulling out all the stops, from the COVID-19 scamdemic to the nationwide race riots, in an attempt to convince voters to boot Trump in November. Nevertheless, the president is rapidly gaining steam, and Democrats have to be extremely perturbed as a result.

Campaign 2020

Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election

This is even more important than polls.

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The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.

Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania Republicans Outpacing Democrats in New Voter Registration By 135,000

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Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.

President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.

Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.

The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.

If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.

These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.

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