A political science and college professor who studies elections is forecasting that President Donald Trump will win the November election, making his prediction on the basis of a model he has used to successfully forecast five of the last six presidential elections. Helmut Norpoth finalized his electoral prediction earlier this month, predicting that President Trump will have a 91% chance of securing reelection.
Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University, bases his electoral predictions on the results of the presidential primaries. He is pointing to record-setting turnout for President Trump in the Republican primaries, and pointing to some of Joe Biden’s early struggles in the Democratic primary. The now-Democratic nominee secured only around 8% of the vote in the first-in-the-nation primary, a shocking figure for an eventual nominee.
“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” Norpoth added during his interview with Stony Brook News. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”
The only presidential election that Norpoth has ever predicted incorrectly was the hotly contested 2000 presidential election, which George W. Bush won over Al Gore by a razor-thin margin in the swing state of Florida alone.
“The key to the November election is the primaries,” Norpoth told Fox News in July. “The early primaries are giving us a lot of information. Based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden, the likely nominee for the Democrats, had a great deal of trouble, pulled it together, but on balance is that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”
Polling is breaking in the direction of the president, and it’s worth noting that it’s considerably rare in American history for a challenger to defeat an incumbent.
New York Young Republicans Call for Order After Chaos at the Capitol
Order Must be Restored
On January 6, 2020 the New York Young Republican Club issued a statement calling for an instant restoration of law and order after protests escalated at the United States Capitol.
The protests were originally in support of President Donald Trump and his efforts to challenge the results of an election marked by massive irregularities. Several protesters pushed the envelope by breaking into the Capitol and interrupting the Senate and House of Representatives proceedings.
The Republican organization issued the following statement on the incident:
Today, what we see at the United States Capitol the result of American elites permitting general malaise to foment tangible destruction. We unequivocally condemn the interruption of Senate and House of Representatives proceedings. Anyone who breached the Capitol should be arrested and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law because destruction and vandalism of property cannot be permitted by any actor.
We are the party of Law and Order, and we expect citizens all to operate in accordance with these standards.
U.S. policymakers will have to take a long hard look in the mirror. The lack of leadership has created a vicious cycle of radicalization that is increasingly getting out of control. Such developments could put America’s political system on the ropes if not addressed properly.
On the Republican side, there must be a clean break during the 2022 primaries, where the overwhelming majority of incumbents should face nationalist challengers. The current leadership has clearly failed and must be replaced.
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