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Campaign 2020

POLL: Justin Amash “Takes Away” More Votes From Joe Biden Than Donald Trump

The Libertarian ideologue could appeal more to the Left.

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New polling suggests that Libertarian Party Presidential candidate Justin Amash takes away more votes from Joe Biden than from Donald Trump, suggesting the appeal for a hardcore libertarian ideologue among Republican voters is slim to non-existent.

The Monmouth polling shows Trump polling two points closer to Joe Biden when Justin Amash is included as a poll option, a margin that was the approximate size of the popular vote in 2016.

Here’s the first round of polling, listing just Joe Biden and Donald Trump as general election choices:

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And when Amash is included as a possible option:

The polling is far from definitive, and it’s not uncommon for presidential election polling the summer before the general election involving an incumbent to show the challenger leading. But it does appear that Amash has far greater appeal to nominal Democratic voters than to Republicans, whose party he abandoned in the name of defending Russian collusion conspiracies.

It’s possible that the appeal of Amash’s hardcore ideological libertarianism has waned in the eyes of the Republican voters. The former Republican came to Congress in the era of the 2010 Tea Party ascendancy, a movement that has since been surpassed in the Republican Party by Donald Trump’s nationalist ‘MAGA’ ideals.

Some Democrats have reacted with fury at the notion of Amash’s Libertarian Party campaign, demanding strict obedience of any nominal anti-Trump voter and fearing the stringent libertarian could “steal” votes from Joe Biden, a candidate with lower recorded enthusiasm levels than any Democratic presidential nominee has ever had.

If Amash has been secretly hoping to become an anti-Trump ‘spoiler’ with the ability to hand the election to Democrats, the Monmouth poll suggesting his appeal is greater to liberals might mean his vanity presidential campaign is essentially pointless.

 

Campaign 2020

Trump Campaign Autopsy Shows Decline in Support From White Men, Coronavirus Epidemic Cost President Re-Election

The 2016 coalition didn’t hold this election.

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A post-election autopsy reveals that Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election by losing support from White men and Americans who disapproved of his handling and communication regarding the coronavirus epidemic.

Data suggesting as such was obtained by Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio.

“Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups,” Fabrizio revealed in his findings. Fabrizio referred to swing states that Trump had held from 2016 and those he had lost. The pollster queried voters in ten different states.

Trump also suffered a decline in support from the youngest Americans and those older than 65. There’s strong reason to believe that some assertions within the Republican Party that the coronavirus pandemic was “no biggie” played a crucial in eroding President Trump’s support among seniors, a vital constituency that has traditionally been strongly Republican. Fabrizio’s data indicates that the coronavirus pandemic was by far and away the most important campaign issue in the 2020 election, and that its importance among the electorate played decisively in Joe Biden’s favor.

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President Trump’s support among White Men declined by as much as 12% in swing states that he lost in 2020. Joe Biden also improved his vote share among the demographic, which still voted strongly Republican, although in a diminished fashion.

It’s been said that Joe Biden won the election with a Democratic version of the so-called “Sailer Strategy,” discarding the Obama coalition in favor of making direct appeals to white seniors who traditionally vote Republican.

At the direction of Jared Kushner, the Trump 2020 campaign prioritized minority outreach and the so-called ‘Platinum Plan’ in hopes of expanding the President’s base of support. This appears to have been only partially successful, and may have come at the crucial cost of outreach energy and resources targeting middle-class white voters who won Trump the presidency.

President Trump expanded his support from Hispanic Americans, a vital constituency in states such as Texas, Nevada and Florida. However, the midwestern Rust Belt has smaller Hispanic communities, and Trump ultimately lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hispanic outreach in Arizona, a state Trump lost by 10,000 votes, didn’t prove as successful as it was in other Sun Belt states, especially with the state’s White senior population inching to the left, relative to 2016. Buffed Hispanic support didn’t prove enough to ultimately swing Nevada, although the President secured a comfortably high margin of victory in Florida.

Trump’s buffed appeal with Hispanics wasn’t matched with Black voters, who largely voted in a fashion comparable to the 2016 election.

A future Republican candidate- even Trump himself, should he choose to run- would have to look more closely at the path to victory staked out in Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign if they seek a strategy with a proven record of success. It’s entirely plausible to believe that future nationalist, populist and conservative presidential candidates can receive even greater levels of Hispanic support while regaining the white blue-collar populist demographic that swept President Trump into the White House in 2016.

Unfortunately, Fabrizio’s autopsy is likely to be wholly ignored, with a sizable contingent of conservatives blaming Trump’s loss exclusively on a set of election steal theories from “brand” online lifestyle influencers. With a persistent fixation on empty dopamine hits, it may prove that Republicans will never a national election ever again, powerless as the Left and corporations transform the United States into a left-liberal oligarchy.


Follow me on Gab @WildmanAZ, Twitter @Wildman_AZ, and on Parler @Moorhead.

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