‘Predict It’ trading in last 24 hours, 90 days points to Roy Moore win in Alabama

This price and volune chart shows the PredictIt trading for the Alabama special Senate election. (Screenshot)

A Big League Politics analysis of the Predict It political trading market for Alabama’s special Senate race held today shows the Republican nominee Roy S. Moore setting up for a win over his Democratic opponent G. Douglas Jones.

Predict It is an educational project that partners with political scientists around the world to study political behavior, said Bradi Travis, the chief marketing officer for the site’s parent Aristotle, a Washington-based political consulting firm.

Travis said each trader is given a binary choice with an $850 limit per market and each market is limited to 5,000 traders–conditions approved the federal government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “There are no open-ended questions.”

The special Senate election in Alabama decided today has consisted represented roughly a third of the site’s total traffic, she said. “It is a very intriguing market to many people.”

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This table of the last 90 days of trading by daily closing price shows a nearly 3-to-1 advantage in both price and volume for Moore compared to Jones:

The market for Moore has an average share price of $0.77 with 1,407,275 shares traded for a total trading value of $871,211.18.

The market for Jones has a average share price of $0.21 with 921,866 shares traded for a total trading value of $306,033.48.

In the last 24 hours of trading, Moore’s market remained strong as demonstrated by this hour-by-hour table:

In the last 24 hours, the market for Moore has an average share price of $0.70 on 95,565,866 shares for a total market value of $67,181.98.

In the last 24 hours, the market for Jones has an average share price of $0.32 on 84,128 shares for a total market value of $26,863.19.

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Neil W. McCabe is a Washington-based political journalist and editor. Before joining Big League Politics, he was the Capitol Hill correspondent for Breitbart News, where he also led Breitbart's political polling operation and wrote up the Breitbart-Gravis polls. McCabe's other positions include the One America News DC Bureau Chief, a senior reporter at Human Events and a staff reporter at The Pilot, Boston's Catholic paper. McCabe also was the editor of The Somerville News, The (North Cambridge, Mass.) Alewife and served as an Army combat historian in Iraq. His 2013 e-book The Unfriendly Skies examined how the American airline industry went from deregulation in the late 1970s to come full circle to the highly-regulated, highly-taxed industry it is today.


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