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Campaign 2020

Sanders/Warren Alliance Falling Apart, Report Says

Things are already turning nasty on the Democratic Primary trail.

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According to a long form Friday report in New York Magazine, a pact between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), both presidential candidates, appears to be falling apart.

“Warren and Sanders would not go after each other directly on the campaign trail. That’s not what they wanted 2020 to be about,” the magazine said.

The pair – long considered to be legislative allies on Capitol Hill – made this arrangement upon deciding that both would run for president, which neither attempted to dissuade the other from doing. But early in Democratic Party primary, the pact appears strained.

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From The New Yorker:

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Half a year of campaigning later, with the pair running second and third in the Democratic race to take on Donald Trump, that arrangement held. Then, on Wednesday, Politico shared a story on Wednesday by tweeting, “Centrists are coming around to Elizabeth Warren as an alternative to Bernie Sanders,” and Sanders responded by retweeting it from his account, noting, “The cat is out of the bag. The corporate wing of the Democratic Party is publicly ‘anybody but Bernie.’ They know our progressive agenda of Medicare for All, breaking up the big banks, taking on drug companies and raising wages is the real threat to the billionaire class.” Political Twitter perked up — here was a real shot in the war so many had so long expected — until Sanders went on CNN a few hours later to tell Chris Cuomo, “That tweet was not about Elizabeth Warren, at all.”

But the Twitter scrum isn’t the first bump on the road between the campaigns. U.S. News & World Report published an early June story wherein an anonymous Sanders adviser claimed that Warren could not possibly win the general election.

“Warren fundamentally fails a basic threshold question: Can she beat Trump? Look at the general election polling. She does the worst of all candidates tested. That’s the DNA test debacle. It just fundamentally killed her. People want somebody who can beat Trump. She loses that argument,” the advisor reportedly said.

The Sanders campaign rushed to clarify for Warren’s camp, making it clear that the position of the advisor did not reflect that of the entire campaign.

The pair is now running second and third in major primary polls. Some polls have Warren leading Sanders, some reflect the opposite. Former vice president Joseph R. Biden Jr. still leads the polls despite a turbulent week.


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Campaign 2020

Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election

This is even more important than polls.

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The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.

Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania Republicans Outpacing Democrats in New Voter Registration By 135,000

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Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.

President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.

Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.

The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.

If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.

These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.

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