In less than 48 hours the entire midterm election process has been turned upside down. Judge Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of groping Christine Blasey Ford, a left-wing California professor, some 30 years ago. Senator Diane Feinstein, despite having a letter from Ford since July, only came forward with it in the last few days. Even then, it was destined for the ash heap of history until today Ford allowed herself to be named.
Immediately, squish RINO Jeff Flake and his soon-to-be-evicted counterpart Bob Corker demanded that the woman be “heard” and that the judicial committee’s vote on recommending Kavanaugh—which prior to this would likely have gone through 11-10 along party lines—now is on hold.
Mitch McConnell, the lovable Yertle, who has been a tiger in getting Trump’s nominees confirmed, may finally have met his procedural match. It is irrelevant if he can request a floor vote without a recommendation from the Judiciary Committee: it would require 60 votes, but Republicans could change the precedent to require only a simple majority. But of course, they wouldn’t have that majority if Flake and Corker both vote no. More important, Flake’s defection emboldens the Squish Sisters, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska to jump on the Flakey wagon.
So Ford will be heard, though the nature of her hearing has yet to be determined.
All of this is, of course, significant for the 4-4 deadlocked U.S. Supreme Court in the short term. And President Trump would simply nominate another judge from his great list if Kavanaugh was struck down—but certainly the same slime treatment would await the next nominee.
A much more important battle now involves the midterms, and the K-bomb has completely reshuffled that deck.
Prior to this weekend, I had the Republicans gaining a net of four to eight, possibly nine seats in the Senate. Jim Renacci in Ohio just pulled closer to Sherrod Brown, putting Ohio definitely in play. Although a variety of polls have Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, Indiana, and Montana as tight, those are all trending Republican and should all be flips.
The House, though in every “generic” poll seems to be flipping to the Democrats, is a different story. There, the news on the ground, district by district, is much different. I cannot find more than 11 seats that the Democrats can flip, and there are at last two, and as many as six, Democrats seats that can flip to the Republicans. In short, until now I had the GOP holding the House and even possibly gaining a seat or two.
But now? Now the K-bomb has just blown all that up. Depending on the outcome of the testimony, Senate and House candidates are going to have to run against anger of one sort or another: for the Democrats, it will be the demonic, seething hatred they have nurtured for two years against Trump. Everyone is well aware of their insanity.
The story on the Republican side is quite different however: there will either be massive anger against the Democrats for destroying the entire process of fairness and justice, or anger at the Republicans for blowing a “gimme.” Just how candidates design their campaigns from here on out will be the deciding factor. If Republicans become completely anti-Swamp, they could generate a red tsunami that will indeed blow out the Democrats. But if they play it cautiously, cowtowing to feminists and trying to be “civil” and “conciliatory,” they are doomed.
By not, they all should realize that they blew it with Roy Moore. Whether he was President Trump’s candidate or not, the fact was he was the Republican candidate. When RINOs and “decent” conservatives abandoned Moore—who only lost by 20,000 votes (when 685,000 stayed home from the previous Richard Shelby election)—they guaranteed that more Roy Moores would appear. Indeed the RINO establishment (including the neverTrumper contingent of Bill Kristol, Jonah Goldberg, Guy Benson, and Ben Shapiro) ensured that the next GOP nominee would be “Moored.”
This will be the fate of every nominee from here on out until we close ranks and, to quote Nancy Reagan, “Just. Say. No.” Republicans still do not realize they are in a knife fight in the back alley. Anyone Trump nominates to the Supreme Court from here on out will suffer outrageous “Borking” slime, only to be met with a last-second “Moore-ish” attack of disgusting character. Get ready. It will come.
How to overcome this? In November, elect Trump-friendly senators from Missouri, North Dakota, Illinois, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, Montana, and Pennsylvania. If there is a Trump/conservative supermajority of 5-6 additional votes, there will be no future Flakes or Collinses.
House candidates will have a much more difficult chore because the House plays no role in confirming judges. However, successful House candidates must show they are intent on fighting and winning, whether on the Wall or on taxes or on the environment. Most of all, they must be Trump’s “blockers” as he scores touchdown after touchdown.
Make no mistake: the K-bomb will affect the midterms.
But in this reshuffled deck, the candidates will decide just how that looks.
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