THREE WEEKS OUT: No Blue Wave, Not Even in the Pacific!

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Oct 15, 2018

With two weeks to go until the midterms, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win the Senate. As of today, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, and Missouri appear safe. Just today, the third consecutive poll showing Dean Heller up in Nevada came out (Emerson) and he has expanded his lead now to seven.

This would mean that as of today, the GOP would gain a net of two seats in the Senate. Races still supposedly up in the air are Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Ohio. Races where the Democrat has a lead outside the margin of error are Wisconsin and Michigan.

It remains my belief that most of these will continue trending Republican as the other five have. This is a pattern. I full expect by election day Montana, Florida, and Indiana will be safe; that Minnesota (Houseley’s race), West Virginia, and Ohio will be nail biters and all three could easily flip to Republicans.

When the dust settles I think the Republicans will gain a net of four to seven seats, but very possibly we will end up with a net gain of eight or even nine. The trends are just that strong.

I’m hearing from an insider in Virginia that even Tim Kaine is ruffled and is scurrying to bolster his late-campaign “boots on the ground” effort. That’s telling.

We continue to see the “Trump Effect” of about 4-5 points in a race, and almost certainly in his last week of campaigning he’ll hit Ohio, probably Arizona (although Kyrsten Sinema’s gaffe-a-minute campaign may make this unnecessary in a week), West Virginia, and, possibly, New Jersey and West Virginia.

No, the Democrats have no chance—none—to take the Senate.

As for the House, you know Republicans are in the driver’s seat when you start to see articles appearing in the fake news media such as “We may not know who won the House on election night” (because of the number of contested seats in the West. In fact, you’ll know right away. If the Democrats don’t take at least one New York seat and one Florida seat and one Michigan seat, it’s almost impossible for them to win. But even if they get each of those, they will likely some up 8-15 seats short.

You also know the Democrats are in trouble when the ever-reliable Politico has the race as the Democrats gaining “24.4 seats” (meaning they would win the House by “1.4 seats.” I guess they are counting Maxine Waters as the “.4”. But the fact is they are way optimistic for the Democrats.

The Republicans continue to look good toward flipping four seats—two in Minnesota, AZ1, and NV4. But currently—and what no one is watching—there are another possible five D-R flips, including one in NH, another in NV, and a couple in California, including Elizabeth Heng.

Governors’ races appear to be trending GOP: Doug Ducey is up huge in Arizona; the Texas race was over months ago; and although Scott Walker is up in some polls, down in others, he has a track record of polling much lower than he performs. Surprisingly, the Florida race is a nail biter and Ron DeSantis has not been able to make much out of Andrew Gillum’s avowed socialism when one Florida poll found that more than 60% of all Floridians said they would never vote for a Socialist.

The Florida race also has the dynamic of the hurricane to deal with, in that it has hammered the Panhandle, a traditionally Republican-rich area. But the devastation also stretched to Tallahassee—Gillum’s base. So far, absentee ballots returned have the Republicans up about 57,000. This is almost exactly where they were in 2016—a Presidential election year!

Despite a massive registration push by Democrats in Arizona, they remain 3.75% behind in total registration—more than enough to make a difference in a race.

In the Northeast, Republicans could see several governors elected in blue states. And finally, in California, John Cox has run a great race. He will likely fall short, but turnout at the top will definitely boost Republicans down ticket in California.

Oh, and as for bogus references to independents switching to Democrats? Remember all those “Hispanics will give Florida to Hillary? . . . before they didn’t? Same thing here.

There is no evidence that indies are flocking to Democrats. Quite the contrary, the evidence we have from a bellwether county in Ohio shows that indies are lining up just like they did in 2016.

If this race ends up like 2016, the Democrats will be routed at every single level.