United States Farm Exports are Expected to Fall by 12% Over the Course of Three Years

According to a USDA announcement on February 22, 2023, a global economic recession combined with inflation, higher interest rates, and a strong dollar have contributed to the decline of agriculture and food exports by 12% through fiscal year 2026. 

“Macroeconomic conditions are expected to slow U.S. exports earlier than imports, leading to a negative trade balance” that would gradually increase, per the USDA’s projections.

Exports are expected to decline wholesale, with grains and soybeans being impacted the most, observed  USDA analysts, basing their analysis on conditions in November. “Reduced export volumes are expected with lower commodity prices also expected to follow.”

Farm exports are expected to bounce back in 2027. Farm exports were projected at $190 billion in 2023, falling  to $166.3 billion in 2026 and then climbing upward to $182.2 billion in 2032, the last year of the 10-year baseline being analyzed.

In addition, imports would be impacted by the worldwide recession but would pick back up by the end of the decade. Food and agricultural imports were projected at $199.1 billion this 2023 and $200 billion in 2032. Horticultural products comprised half of US ag imports, with fruit and vegetable imports estimated to grow by 2% annually. 

“This growth has largely been driven by desire for year-round supply, changing consumer preferences, and increasingly competitive foreign production,” stated the USDA.

The US and the broader West are experiencing a tumultuous economic environment thanks to years of over-regulation, easy money, and burdensome systems of taxation. As a result, many of the US’s vaunted sectors such as agriculture will be impacted greatly due to these changes.

If there is going to be a full recovery of US agriculture, US elected officials need to roll back state intervention and allow for markets to work properly.

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