A polling method utilized by the University of Southern California’s Dornslife College is predicting that President Donald Trump will secure an electoral college victory, deviating from many polling models produced by corporate media in accounting for what they call a “social desirability bias.”
USC’s polling model seeks to account for what they’re citing as shy Trump supporters by asking poll respondents how they believe that those in their own immediatel social circles will vote. The theorists behind the poll argue that such a line of questioning allows respondents more inclined to disclose information to reveal how so-called shy Trump supporters will vote.
“To evaluate the potential impact of the shy voter belief on the responses of poll participants, we asked them three questions: What percent of their social contacts might be embarrassed to admit to pollsters their opinions about Trump or Biden, what percent might fear harassment if they admit these opinions, and what percent might want to obstruct polls by misreporting who they will vote for?
On average, our participants believe that people in their social circle might be more reluctant to admit their support for Trump than for Biden.”
When the presence of socially identified shy Trump voters is accounted for, the USC pollsters ultimately make a cautious prediction that Biden will fail to secure 270 electoral college votes.
“When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden.”
Jim Key of USC points to previous correct predictions of the USC/Dornslife polling model in support of the method’s veracity. He argues that the polling organization correctly predicted the outcomes ofthe 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for the House of Representatives.
Obama Reportedly Said Pete Buttigieg Too ‘Gay’ and ‘Short’ to be President
Tell it like it is, Barack!
Former president Barack Hussein Obama reportedly said that former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg was too “gay” and too “short” to be a serious presidential contender during the midst of the 2020 presidential race.
Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020 and surprisingly won the Iowa caucus, is now the Transportation Secretary under President-imposed Joe Biden. He is considered a rising star in the Democrat Party due to his homosexual lifestyle, which includes being gay married to a husband, but Obama is apparently a doubter.
Obama reportedly made his remarks while addressing a group of black Democrat donors in Oct. 2019 as he was attempting to exert his influence over the process. The revelation comes from a new book authored by The Hill’s Amie Parnes and NBC’s Jonathan Allen titled, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency.
At the time, Obama was apparently supporting Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) for president. The excerpt from the book, which includes various pot shots made by Obama toward Buttigieg, reads as follows:
When he was asked to return to the original question on his advice, Obama said he liked Buttigieg, a rising talent who’d worked on his own campaign. But despite his affinity for the South Bend mayor, he rattled off a list of reasons why Buttigieg couldn’t win.
“He’s thirty- eight,” Obama said, pausing for dramatic effect, “but he looks thirty.” The audience laughed. Obama was on a roll, using the tone of light ridicule he some-times pointed at himself — ” big ears” and “a funny name,” he’d said so many times before. Now, it was directed at Buttigieg. “He’s the mayor of a small town,” the former president continued. “He’s gay,” Obama said, “and he’s short.” More laughter.
Only months earlier, Buttigieg had sat in Obama’s postpresidential office in Washington seeking counsel on how to maintain equanimity in the face of homophobia on the campaign trail. Now, behind his back, Obama was riffing on him to some of the wealthiest Black men in America at a time when Buttigieg had been dubbed “Mayo Pete” by critics who believed he couldn’t connect with African American voters.
It goes without saying that any conservative who made similar remarks would be pilloried by the fake news media. Obama will get a pass, although the comments may make the former president’s relationship with the former mayor strained as Buttigieg climbs up the political ladder undeservedly due solely to identity politics.
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