President Donald Trump is the most popular politician in America. Regardless of whether or not he is above or below 50 percent approval in mainstream polls, the fact of the matter is that Trump is the only politician who commands respect on a national level who can actually get the vote out at mass numbers.
President Trump is the best thing Republicans have going for them. I explain:
One of the most difficult things to do is to predict Ohio politics. The state does not register by party until a person votes in an election. If you did not vote in the previous election, guess what? You get dumped into the “U” bin (“unaffiliated”) until you vote again.
Anyway, the numbers produced by the Ohio Secretary of State office are exceedingly inaccurate, at least according to my source, “The Accountant.” In 2016, the Accountant and my other Ohio source “OhioWan” were dead on, saying Trump would win big.
Actually, hold that thought: they weren’t dead on. They were low. Real low. In late September 2016 they told me Trump would win Ohio by “four or five.” I transmitted that info to Team Trump and urged the Trump team to get out of Ohio and spend time in Pennsylvania and Michigan. They listened. Meanwhile, as you know, Trump won Ohio by nine.
Why was the Accountant, in particular, so clued in when everyone else thought Ohio was, at least, competitive? It gets back to the old “Unaffiliated” voters in Ohio. One might think these are “independents,” and thus (as we thought wrongly in 2012) if a candidate like Mitt Romney is leading with independents in Ohio, it will be hard to lose.
Wrong. In 2012 those “unaffiliated” voters were in large part Obama Democrats who didn’t vote in the primary, but who showed up on election day, handing Romney a loss.
The Accountant vowed to address that issue in the next election, and he did so through painstaking historical research into how each household in a single county—the swing county of Montgomery—voted going back to 2000. He established a ranking system where he could thereby much more accurately identify an “unaffiliated” as a “Lazy D,” a “Lazy R,” or truly an independent.
The result? The Accountant was able to allocate the large majority of “U” voters to either the Democrats or the Republicans, and therefore when the early ballots came in, could with extremely high accuracy say “this is a Trump Republican” or “this is a Hillary Democrat.” There were, of course, people in each party who crossed to vote for the other candidate, and there were, of course, some remaining true “Us” whose vote couldn’t be predicted. But . . .
Using this tool, the Accountant constantly “re-allocated” all the early votes based on voting history, and by early October was convinced Trump was doing exceptionally well in the county. Neither he nor OhioWan wanted to predict Trump would win the county (which he did), but even being close in Montgomery historically meant a big GOP victory.
Fast forward to 2018. Recall I said the Secretary of State registration numbers were not accurate?
Here is the “official” status as us August 2018:
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