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Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Jones takes 47% to 42% lead over Moore

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Democrat G. Douglas Jones has taken a five-point lead over Republican Roy S. Moore, 47 percent to 42 percent, as the two men vie for the Senate seat to be decided in the Dec. 12 special election, according to the lasted Big League-Gravis poll of 628 likely Alabama voters conducted Nov. 14 through Nov. 15.

“In the last week, the Alabama electorate has turned on Judge Roy Moore,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 3.5 percent margin of error.

“Eleven percent of the participants said they were undecided, but of them, 17 percent said they lean Moore and 22 percent lean Jones,” he said.

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In the Nov. 10 Big League-Gravis poll, Moore held his lead over Jones: 48 percent for Moore and 46 percent for Jones.

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“There is a 7-point swing, but it’s more dramatic,” he said. “The amount of undecideds has basically doubled.”

More than anything else, this race was Moore to lose and he is losing it, he said.

“Can he win? Yes,” he said. “If the election were held today? He would lose decisively.”

Kaplan said Moore has not expanded his voter base.

“Moore has basically held his primary vote,” he said.

“That is not enough to win,” he said. “The people deciding the elections. The independents and Luther Strange voters, your suburban voter does not believe the Moore.”

Moore beat Sen. Luther J. Strange III in the Sept. 26 GOP Senate primary runoff.

Moore needs to hold on to not only his 262,204 votes he collected in the Sept. 26 runoff, but also at least  45 percent of Strange’s 218,066 votes in the runoff to overcome Jones’ 165,000 votes from his own primary victory.

Republican nominee Roy S. Moore campaign in a private home Nov. 16, 2017 for the Dec. 12, 2017 special Alabama Senate election. (Photo courtesy of Moore campaign Facebook page)

The Senate race was rocked when The Washington Post published four women, who said they had sexually-tinged encounters with Moore, when he was in his 30s and they were teenagers–one claimed to be 14-years-old, when the state’s age of consent was and remains 16-years-old.

In the poll, 95 percent of respondents said they were aware of the charges against Moore.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they believe Moore’s denials and 39 percent said they believe his accusers.

Kaplan said time is running out for the Moore campaign as the former state chief justice shift focus to his #DitchMitch effort, rather than present a compelling response to the accusations. Senate Majority Leader A. Mitchell McConnell (R.-Ky.) and his operatives, such as his former chief of staff Josh Holmes, have been part of the movement to derail Moore.

“He is basically in the fourth quarter trying to run out the clock,” Kaplan said. “The stratergy is not working. The voters want answers from him legitimate questions and he has not answered them that is what you are seeing in the poll results.”

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.

Check out the poll’s questions and summary:
Questions and summary of the Nov. 14 to Nov. 15 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll GM_Release_AL_11172017

Check out the poll’s crosstabs:
Spreadsheet of the Nov. 14 to Nov. 15 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll

 

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Big League Polls

Poll: Fake News Distorts Trump/Ukraine/Biden Controversy, But the Public Isn’t Buying It

A fake news reporter for the Washington Post laments that the propaganda isn’t working so well.

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A majority of the U.S. public does not believe or does not know if President Donald Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a recent opinion poll conducted by Monmouth University.

Washington Post fake news hack Aaron Blake lamented about these findings, and the fact that a similar number of people feel that Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to drop an investigation of his son.

Blake released a whining tweet about the matter on Tuesday:

While Blake claims that the allegation about Trump has an “official rough transcript to support it,” the actual contents of the conversation never showed that any pressure took place. Trump simply asked the Ukraine to help investigate corruption, and assist him in his ongoing quest to drain the swamp.

“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike … I guess you have one of your wealthy people… The server, they say Ukraine has it,” Trump said to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me,” Trump added.

“Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament, the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September,” Zelensky responded. “He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue.”

“On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us, it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we administer justice in our country,” Zelensky added.

“I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it,” Trump responded. “I’m sure you will figure it out. I heard the prosecutor was treated very badly and he was a very fair prosecutor so good luck with everything.”

At the same time, Blake has the nerve to say that it is a “highly speculative, dubious claim” that Biden used his power to influence the Ukrainian government to drop an investigation related to his son, Hunter, when he testified on video that he did it in 2016:

Big League Politics reported last week that additional documents have indicated that a wider conspiracy was hatched by Democratic Party operatives to prevent justice from occurring in the Ukraine:

Journalist John Solomon at The Hill obtained a sworn affidavit containing Shokin’s witness statement that was prepared for European court. In the document, Shokin claims he was told that the reason he was fired was due to Biden’s objections to his investigation over Burisma.

“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings, a natural gas firm active in Ukraine and Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board of Directors,” Shokin testified…

Solomon also pointed to documents he obtained from Burisma’s team of lawyers in America to back up Shokin’s testimony. The firm’s accounting records show that Burisma gave tens of thousands of dollars to Blue Star Strategies, a public relations and lobbying group that had Hunter Biden on its board.

Blue Star Strategies is run by former administration officials who served under President Bill Clinton, Karen Tramontano and Sally Painter. Painter had a meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington D.C. where she lobbied to meet government officials in Ukraine.

“With regards to the meetings in Kiev, I suggest that you wait until the next week when there is an expected vote of the government’s reshuffle,” Ukrainian embassy employee Oksana Shulyar wrote in an email to Painter following the meeting.

Ukraine’s Washington embassy denies that talk of the “reshuffle” had anything to do with Shokin’s firing. Blue Star also paid a Ukrainian official who they asked for help in scheduling meetings with Ukraine’s prosecutors about the Burisma investigation, according to memos obtained by Solomon.

Blue Star also worked with criminal defense attorney John Buretta. Buretta helped set up a meeting with interim prosecutor Yuriy Sevruk with Tramontano and Painter. The trio apologized for a disinformation campaign that was circulating about Shokin, presumably as apart of the campaign to get him fired.

“They realized that the information disseminated in the U.S. was incorrect and that they would facilitate my visit to the U.S. for the purpose of delivering the true information to the State Department management,” a memo about the meeting stated.

The fake news is angry that they cannot spin away this scandal against the Democrats’ front-runner to challenge for the presidency in 2020, as Biden appears to be obviously guilty of the crimes that they are accusing Trump of committing.

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