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Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Jones takes 47% to 42% lead over Moore

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Democrat G. Douglas Jones has taken a five-point lead over Republican Roy S. Moore, 47 percent to 42 percent, as the two men vie for the Senate seat to be decided in the Dec. 12 special election, according to the lasted Big League-Gravis poll of 628 likely Alabama voters conducted Nov. 14 through Nov. 15.

“In the last week, the Alabama electorate has turned on Judge Roy Moore,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 3.5 percent margin of error.

“Eleven percent of the participants said they were undecided, but of them, 17 percent said they lean Moore and 22 percent lean Jones,” he said.

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In the Nov. 10 Big League-Gravis poll, Moore held his lead over Jones: 48 percent for Moore and 46 percent for Jones.

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“There is a 7-point swing, but it’s more dramatic,” he said. “The amount of undecideds has basically doubled.”

More than anything else, this race was Moore to lose and he is losing it, he said.

“Can he win? Yes,” he said. “If the election were held today? He would lose decisively.”

Kaplan said Moore has not expanded his voter base.

“Moore has basically held his primary vote,” he said.

“That is not enough to win,” he said. “The people deciding the elections. The independents and Luther Strange voters, your suburban voter does not believe the Moore.”

Moore beat Sen. Luther J. Strange III in the Sept. 26 GOP Senate primary runoff.

Moore needs to hold on to not only his 262,204 votes he collected in the Sept. 26 runoff, but also at least  45 percent of Strange’s 218,066 votes in the runoff to overcome Jones’ 165,000 votes from his own primary victory.

Republican nominee Roy S. Moore campaign in a private home Nov. 16, 2017 for the Dec. 12, 2017 special Alabama Senate election. (Photo courtesy of Moore campaign Facebook page)

The Senate race was rocked when The Washington Post published four women, who said they had sexually-tinged encounters with Moore, when he was in his 30s and they were teenagers–one claimed to be 14-years-old, when the state’s age of consent was and remains 16-years-old.

In the poll, 95 percent of respondents said they were aware of the charges against Moore.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they believe Moore’s denials and 39 percent said they believe his accusers.

Kaplan said time is running out for the Moore campaign as the former state chief justice shift focus to his #DitchMitch effort, rather than present a compelling response to the accusations. Senate Majority Leader A. Mitchell McConnell (R.-Ky.) and his operatives, such as his former chief of staff Josh Holmes, have been part of the movement to derail Moore.

“He is basically in the fourth quarter trying to run out the clock,” Kaplan said. “The stratergy is not working. The voters want answers from him legitimate questions and he has not answered them that is what you are seeing in the poll results.”

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.

Check out the poll’s questions and summary:
Questions and summary of the Nov. 14 to Nov. 15 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll GM_Release_AL_11172017

Check out the poll’s crosstabs:
Spreadsheet of the Nov. 14 to Nov. 15 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll

 

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POLL: Trump is Neck and Neck With Biden in Florida

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President Donald Trump has just taken the lead for the first time in Florida, according to a RealClearPolitics poll released on October 27, 2020, despite Democrats lead in early voting.

The website’s average of polls shows that Trump holds a razor thin 0.4 percent advantage over his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. About 2.7 million Democrats have already cast their ballots in the Sunshine State, a narrow lead over the approximately 2.4 million Republicans who voted early. Approximately 1.3 million Floridians cast votes without any party affiliation.

Florida is an electorally crucial state. Democrats have won the general election only twice without winning Florida since 1860. John Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 and Bill Clinton in 1992 without picking up Florida.

Trump beat Hilary Clinton by a razor thin 1.2 percent margin in 2016.

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However, there might be a recent twist in the nature of the Florida battle. On October 28, 2020, RealClearPolitics noted that race between Trump and Biden is effectively tied. These numbers will likely fluctuate from here until November 3, 2020.

Florida is rather interesting because of its Caribbean Hispanic voting demographic, which does not vote as solidly Democrat as other Hispanic groups in the state. Trump’s nationalist message has likely made inroads with this demographic, along with working class whites in Florida’s Panhandle.

Trump must continue positioning himself as the sole nationalist candidate in this race. Campaigning as a generic Conservatism Inc. candidate will put voters to sleep and likely threaten Trump’s chances in the Sunshine State.  Trump should take note and ignore all conventional wisdom.

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