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Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Moore surges ahead of Jones 49% to 45% in special Senate election race

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Republican and two-time Alabama chief justice Roy S. Moore regained his lead over Democrat and former U.S. attorney G. Douglas Jones with 49 percent to Jones’ 45 percent in the last days of the special Senate election campaign to be decided Dec. 12, according to the Big League-Gravis poll conducted Dec. 5 through Dec. 8 with 1,254 likely voters.

Moore has momentum,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries of 2.8 percent margin of error.

“We saw the undecideds move from 8 percent to 6 percent and it is reasonable to assume that shy Moore supporters have become more comfortable expressing their support,” Kaplan said.

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In the previous poll, Jones led Moore 48 percent to 44 percent,  he said.

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These are the previous three Big League-Gravis polls of the Alabama special Senate election campaign:

Nov. 10 Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll, Moore 48 percent v. Jones 46 percent

Nov. 14 through Nov. 15 Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll, Jones 47 percent v. Moore 42 percent

Dec. 1 through Dec. 3 Big League-Gravis Alabama Poll, Jones 48 percent v. Moore 46 percent

“Another factor working for Moore is the passion among Republican voters,” he said. “In the raw data from each of the previous three polls, we have seen an increase in Republican participation, which was not reflected in the polls because we wanted to keep the same turnout model.”

Kaplan said there has been no serious exit polling done in Alabama for more than five years, so their model was crafted to mirror the state’s registration, along with other factors, however, in light of the consistent movement in the raw data, the voting model was shifted from plus-15 Republican to plus-23 Republican.

The previous three polls were 48 percent GOP and 33 percent Democratic, he said. “Registration in the state runs 52-to-35, GOP-to-Democrat, but for this poll, we changed our model to 53 percent Republican and 30 percent Democrat to account for the turnout passion we picked up in the raw data with Republicans.”

“If we used the old model Jones would be up two on Moore, which still shows Moore’s coming back, but it would also mean that we would be ignoring a verified trend,” he said.

“Broken down by party affiliation, Moore still has a problem with Republicans, but culturally, there is a tendency for them to come home as the election gets closer,” he said.

Alabama Democratic Senate nominee G. Douglas Jones (Photo courtesy of Jones Facebook page)

Jones has the support of 93 percent of Democrats compared to Moore’s 77 percent support with Republicans–with Independents, Jones has an overwhelming lead, 52 percent to 11 percent for Judge Moore,” he said.

Broken down by ethnicity, 86 percent of African-American voters support Jones, along with 32 percent of white voters, he said. Moore has the support of 60 percent of white voters and 8 percent of African-American voters.

Less than 5 percent of Alabamians identify as Catholic, but among Catholics participating in the poll, 47 percent support Moore and 45 percent support Jones. Among Evangelicals, Moore has a huge lead over Jones, 78 percent to Jones’ 17 percent.

In the 2014 election, Sen. Jefferson B. “Jeff” Sessions (R.-Ala.) won reelection with more than 97 percent of the vote–he ran unopposed. This special election is for the rest of the term because of the vacancy created when Sessions resigned from Senate to become attorney general.

In the 2016 presidential race, Republican New York City developer Donald J. Trump won Alabama with 73 percent of the vote to 24 percent of the vote garnered by Democrat former first lady Hillary R. Clinton.

Republican Senate candidate Roy S. Moore meets with an Alabama voter. Moore leads Sen. Luther J. Strange III , 48 percent to 40 percent, going into Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff. (Courtesy of Moore for Senate campaign Facebook page)

Despite a bitter GOP primary that culminated in a Sept. 26 runoff between Moore and Sen. Luther J. Strange III , the assumption was that Moore would coast to an easy victory over Jones, who was the state’s U.S. attorney under President William J. Clinton, especially after Jones refused to deviate from the national Democratic Party’s positions on restricting gun rights and against restoring legal protection for unborn children.

The one concession Jones made to Alabama’s unique culture was his TV ad, where he celebrated the bravery of Confederate soldiers at the same time national Democrats were calling for the removal of memorials to the South’s war dead.

The race was upturned, however, when The Washington Post ran a Nov. 9 story that quoted four women, who said Moore had put them in awkward sexual situations when they were teens and he was in his early 30s. One of the girls claims to have been 14, below the state’s age of consent of 16.

Moore has denied their accounts.

In the just-completed poll, 47 percent of respondents said they believe Post‘s story and 38 percent said they did not.

Forty-nine percent of women said they believe the newspaper’s account, compared to 46 percent of men.

In the candidate preference, there is still a gender divide among respondents who were not undecided, but not as pronounced with Jones the choice of 48 percent of women and 42 percent of men and Moore the choice of 45 percent of women and 54 percent of men.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and online panel cell phone users and the results were weighted to match a proprietary voter model.

Check out the full poll results here:

Executive Summary Dec. 5 through Dec. 8 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll

Check out the poll crosstabs here:

Crosstabs for Dec. 5 through Dec. 8 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll

Big League Guns

In Republican-Controlled Wyoming, A Gun Rights Group is Now being Forced to Reveal its Donors

Violation of privacy.

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The Wyoming Secretary of State’s Office is cracking down on a pro-Second Amendment organization by forcing it to reveal its donors. This move was spurred by a campaign that Wyoming Gun Owners launched last summer in which it attacked a number of incumbent elected officials in races across the state.

In a letter that the office published on October 14, 2020 Wyoming Gun Owners allegedly did follow the state’s campaign finance law.

The organization pulled off a number victories by unseating incumbent lawmakers last summer and has released advertisement targeting various candidates in the elections on November 3, which includes Riverton Republican Ember Oakley and Democrat Britney Wallesch.

The pro-Second Amendment organization has been around Wyoming politics for some time and publicly disclosed that it is paying for advertisements. However, its lack of registry with the state as either a lobbying organization or a political action committee runs afoul of state guidelines.

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“The Secretary of State’s Office has reviewed the advertisements paid for by WYGO and determined that they are clearly electioneering communications,” the letter stated. “As such, WYGO failed to comply with the requirements set forth in Wyo. Stat. § 22-25-106(h).”

It wasn’t until a few months ago that the group’s activities have not been reported within the state government. The Wyoming government cannot initiate the investigation on electioneering activity allegations unless someone files a formal complaint.

An initial complaint was first reported by the Riverton Ranger newspaper earlier this month. It did not gather any further steam because it was lacking in evidence to support the allegations. Subsequently, a second complaint with proper documentation was filed with the state not too long after, which prompted the Secretary of State to take action.

Wyoming Gun Owners now has until November 4 to disclose the names of its donors or be slapped with a $500 fine.

If the group refuses to follow the state’s order, the case will then be kicked to the Wyoming Attorney General, according to secretary of state spokesperson Monique Meese.

“Then we take their advice about what to do going forward,” she stated.

State Senator Anthony Bouchard founded Wyoming Gun Owners almost a decade ago. Nowadays, it is run by various members of the Dorr Family, who operate a network of pro-gun organizations pushing for pro-Second Amendment policies.

Aaron Dorr, Wyoming Gun Owners’ executive director, has had public disputes with elected officials such as Senate Vice President Ogden Driskill, who has repeatedly criticized the organization’s tactics during the 2020 election cycle.

The pro-gun organization bolstered its reputation by killing a firearm reporting bill in 2019 sponsored by former Campbell County Sheriff and current State Representative Bill Pownall.  Wyoming Gun Owners ran ads supporting Bill Fortner, Pownall’s opponent. Throughout these ad blasts, Pownall was depicted as anti-gun. Fortner ended up winning in a landslide.

Such a case shows how even Republican governments will go out of their way to prop up incumbents and infringe on the privacy rights of organizations that wish to restore freedoms such as the Second Amendment. Just because politicians have an “R”s beside their name does not guarantee that they will protect individuals’ rights.

 

 

 

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