Big League Polls
Big League-Gravis Alabama poll: Sen. Luther Strange’s voters wary of Judge Moore after accusations
Alabama Republicans who voted for Sen. Luther J. Strange III in the Sept. 26 Senate primary runoff with Roy S. Moore are not committed to Moore as he struggles against charges of sexual misconduct as he campaigns for the Dec. 12 special election to fill the unexpired term of Attorney General Jefferson B. “Jeff” Sessions, according to the Big League-Gravis poll conducted Nov. 10 with 478 likely Alabama voters.
“Moore is in serious trouble with Strange supporters,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The entire poll carries a 4.5 percent margin of error and a larger margin of error inside special demographics.
“Republicans who voted for Strange are the wild card,” he said. “Thirty-four percent of Moore’s supporters believe the women accusing him of pursuing them when they were teenagers with really weird stuff claimed by the woman, who was only 14.”
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Kaplan said only 15 percent of Strange supporters believe the women accusing Moore, but 47 percent of them say they are undecided about who is telling the truth. “That’s roughly 102,000 voters in play.”
Twenty-eight percent of Strange voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Moore and 14 percent have a Somewhat Unfavorable, he said. “Only 15 percent of Strange voters have a Very Favorable view of Moore and 31 percent have a Somewhat Favorable view.”
In the Aug. 15 GOP Senate primary, Moore and Strange were the top vote-getters, but neither man garnered at least 50 percent of the vote. Moore collected 138,971 votes with 33 percent compared to Moore’s 164,524 votes with 39 percent of the vote. The total vote in that primary for the Republicans was 423,282 votes.
In the Sept. 26 primary runoff, Moore won over Strange, 55 percent to 45 percent, with 480,270 total votes–a 13 percent increase over rthe Aug. 15 GOP turnout.
In the Aug. 15 Democratic Senate primary, G. Douglas Jones won his party’s nomination beat out eight other Democrats with 109,105 of 165,006 votes cast or 66 percent of the vote.
Head-to-head between Jones and Moore, if Moore holds on to the 262,204 votes he collected in the Sept. 26 runoff and Jones held his votes from Aug. 15, Moore would win by 97,198 votes–a margin equal to 45 percent of Strange’s 218,066 votes in the runoff.
In the Big League-Gravis poll, 64 percent of the Republicans who voted for Strange, roughly 140,000, said they would support Moore two days after the article in The Washington Post and 22 percent said they would vote for Jones.
One way of putting the 2017 contests in perspective, GOP nominee Donald J. Trump won Alabama’s nine electoral votes with 1,318,235 votes, 62 percent, compared to 729,547 votes, 34 percent, for his Democratic rival Hillary R. Clinton.
Another way of looking at how different this political season is for Alabama is to look at the 2014 election, when Sessions ran unopposed garnering 97 percent of the vote.
The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phones users. The results are weighted to match a proprietary voter turnout model.
Spreadsheet of crosstabs for Luther supporters in Nov. 10 Big League-Gravis Alabama poll
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Big League Polls
Poll: Fake News Distorts Trump/Ukraine/Biden Controversy, But the Public Isn’t Buying It
A fake news reporter for the Washington Post laments that the propaganda isn’t working so well.
A majority of the U.S. public does not believe or does not know if President Donald Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a recent opinion poll conducted by Monmouth University.
Washington Post fake news hack Aaron Blake lamented about these findings, and the fact that a similar number of people feel that Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to drop an investigation of his son.
Blake released a whining tweet about the matter on Tuesday:
One has an official rough transcript to support it; the other is a highly speculative, dubious claim about Biden.
Yet voters appear to regard them as similarly plausible.
take our poll - story continues belowCompleting this poll grants you access to Big League Politics updates free of charge. You may opt out at anytime. You also agree to this site's Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.¯_(ツ)_/¯https://t.co/vSDB9Ob6TZ pic.twitter.com/kVj8yVAbjh
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) October 1, 2019
While Blake claims that the allegation about Trump has an “official rough transcript to support it,” the actual contents of the conversation never showed that any pressure took place. Trump simply asked the Ukraine to help investigate corruption, and assist him in his ongoing quest to drain the swamp.
“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike … I guess you have one of your wealthy people… The server, they say Ukraine has it,” Trump said to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me,” Trump added.
“Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament, the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September,” Zelensky responded. “He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue.”
“On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us, it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we administer justice in our country,” Zelensky added.
“I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it,” Trump responded. “I’m sure you will figure it out. I heard the prosecutor was treated very badly and he was a very fair prosecutor so good luck with everything.”
At the same time, Blake has the nerve to say that it is a “highly speculative, dubious claim” that Biden used his power to influence the Ukrainian government to drop an investigation related to his son, Hunter, when he testified on video that he did it in 2016:
Joe Biden brags about how he threatened to pull $1 billion in loan guarantees from Ukraine if it didn’t immediately fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.
The prosecutor, who was fired, was leading a corruption investigation into a company that employed Biden's son, Hunter pic.twitter.com/xZd3vIMbuL
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 20, 2019
Big League Politics reported last week that additional documents have indicated that a wider conspiracy was hatched by Democratic Party operatives to prevent justice from occurring in the Ukraine:
Journalist John Solomon at The Hill obtained a sworn affidavit containing Shokin’s witness statement that was prepared for European court. In the document, Shokin claims he was told that the reason he was fired was due to Biden’s objections to his investigation over Burisma.
“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings, a natural gas firm active in Ukraine and Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board of Directors,” Shokin testified…
Solomon also pointed to documents he obtained from Burisma’s team of lawyers in America to back up Shokin’s testimony. The firm’s accounting records show that Burisma gave tens of thousands of dollars to Blue Star Strategies, a public relations and lobbying group that had Hunter Biden on its board.
Blue Star Strategies is run by former administration officials who served under President Bill Clinton, Karen Tramontano and Sally Painter. Painter had a meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington D.C. where she lobbied to meet government officials in Ukraine.
“With regards to the meetings in Kiev, I suggest that you wait until the next week when there is an expected vote of the government’s reshuffle,” Ukrainian embassy employee Oksana Shulyar wrote in an email to Painter following the meeting.
Ukraine’s Washington embassy denies that talk of the “reshuffle” had anything to do with Shokin’s firing. Blue Star also paid a Ukrainian official who they asked for help in scheduling meetings with Ukraine’s prosecutors about the Burisma investigation, according to memos obtained by Solomon.
Blue Star also worked with criminal defense attorney John Buretta. Buretta helped set up a meeting with interim prosecutor Yuriy Sevruk with Tramontano and Painter. The trio apologized for a disinformation campaign that was circulating about Shokin, presumably as apart of the campaign to get him fired.
“They realized that the information disseminated in the U.S. was incorrect and that they would facilitate my visit to the U.S. for the purpose of delivering the true information to the State Department management,” a memo about the meeting stated.
The fake news is angry that they cannot spin away this scandal against the Democrats’ front-runner to challenge for the presidency in 2020, as Biden appears to be obviously guilty of the crimes that they are accusing Trump of committing.
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