China Believes Russo-Ukrainian War Will End in Summer

In February, China shocked the world by putting forward a peace plan that would bring the Russo-Ukrainian war to an end. After launching its “special military operation” on February 24, 2022 against Ukraine, Russia has made slow but steady progress in Eastern Ukraine after over a year of fighting.

China has been watching this conflict with great interest, out of a general fear that it will likely be next on the Collective West’s geopolitical chopping block. Curiously, Chinese military experts believe that Russia’s conflict will end by the summer. 

During February’s Munich security conference, Wang Yi, the Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, revealed to the attendees that China would soon roll out a peace plan for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. 

“We will put forth China’s position on the political settlement on the Ukraine crisis and stay firm on the side of peace and dialogue,” Wang said during his February 18, 2023 speech.

On February 24, 2023, the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China published a 12-point peace plan where it pushed for an early ceasefire and for both parties to resume negotiations that would lead to a peaceful settlement. 

China has taken a neutral position on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by not criticizing Russia’s invasion nor joining the anti-Russia sanctions bandwagon. 

However, a report by Nikkei Asia noted that China’s sudden effort to roll out a peace plan “can be traced back to a report issued two months earlier by a top think tank in Beijing.” 

The think tank question, the  Academy of Military Sciences, published this report. The AMS reports directly to the People’s Liberation Army. 

The AMS routinely puts forward recommendations and reports to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making entity for the Chinese armed forces. 

In December, the AMS conducted a simulation of the Ukraine conflict, which produced a surprising result, per sources tightly connected to the Chinese government. The war is expected to conclude around summer 2023, according to the simulation, with Russia being in a stronger position. 

The report indicated that both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too strained to maintain the war beyond the summer. 

After the AMS’ projections were presented to the Chinese government, Chinese authorities have put forward a peace proposal to end this conflict. 

There’s clearly self-interest involved here, with China trying to position itself as a mediator and an agent of peace on the world stage. Nevertheless, China’s mindset here is correct. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict needs to be brought to an end. The longer this war goes on, the more likely it could spark a direct clash between NATO and Russia, a scenario that could potentially go nuclear. 

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