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2018 Midterms

DATA: Good News In Nevada and Minnesota Point To Hope For Republicans

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So far, despite my optimistic predictions, I have not subscribed to a “red wave” theory, mainly on the grounds that the House is going to be tight and many of the Senate races (AZ, MT, OH) could be within 5 points either way. I see very few blowouts, but a general scale tipping to the Republicans across the board.

But there may be a canary in the silver mine in Nevada.

As with many states, Nevada has unique election laws. It has early voting, but on the first weekend only the two population centers of Las Vegas (Clark County) and Reno (Washoe) are open. The “red rurals” are all closed. A false picture thus unfolds after the first two days. However, there was still room for concern at first: Democrats were doing better in Washoe County than they have historically.

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What a difference a few days makes. Once the red rurals opened, Republican early votes flooded in and at the same time Clark began to see a dropoff. In fact, the shift has been so stunning that Nevada Democrat analyst John Ralston of the “Ralston Report” went from all but popping the champagne on Sunday to now warning that Democrats will need a “Clark firewall” to prevent a total disaster.

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There won’t be a firewall. My confidante and analyst on Nevada, “The Dentist,” has run the numbers and they are shocking. Keep in mind Trump only lost the state by 27,000 votes, and that Republicans have gained 29,000 net new registrations in Nevada since 2016.

What the Dentist found was the the rate of return for the Democrats has crashed, literally last night plummeting from a dropoff of 73% from the 2016 totals to 79%. Put another way, right now the Democrats are projected to get only 21% of their 2016 totals. In terms of numbers of votes, the Dentist calculates that Jackie Rosen, the Democrat senate candidate, will be a whopping 35,000 votes short of winning! Dean Heller would win more comfortably than anyone imagined if these numbers hold up. Adam Laxalt would likewise win the governorship, and it would mean both NV3 and NV4 congressional districts would be once again seriously vulnerable.

But let’s jump from Nevada’s silver mines to the Iron Range of Minnesota where similar developments are unfolding: it now appears that Cong. Keith Ellison is crashing so hard he may take down the entire Minnesota establishment with him. Right now my sources in Minnesota are confident that Ellison will lose the Attorney General race, and by more than 5 points. But the news gets better for Republicans: all state candidates are including Ellison in their ads, and it is having a serious impact. Not only is Karin Housley now well within the margin of error, but suddenly Jim Newberger is just outside the MOE in his race with Amy Klobuchar—a seat until last week considered entirely safe! The governor’s race is now very close. More!? Word is that all the red districts are turning out at 2016 levels and above, and that virtually every candidate except Erik Paulsen now has the wind at his or her back. Paulsen, of course, was a neverTrumper who is paying for it, as all neverTrumpers nationally are.

It’s too bad, because there is an opportunity for the old Vikings’ Sweep in Minnesota. Now Paulsen may be on the bench.

These “canaries” suggest, for the first time, that the massive early and absentee advantages the Republicans are piling up may translate into the House races and seriously open up the possibility of the Republicans actually gaining a seat or two in the House.

2018 Midterms

TROLLED: Pelosi For Prison Banner Flown Over Her San Francisco District

It calls for Pelosi to be locked up for her “crimes against America.”

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Liberals in San Francisco were immediately triggered Thursday morning by the sight of an impossible-to-miss 25-foot by 80-foot “Pelosi for Prison” banner flying in the spy upon the left-wing stronghold.

The banner, paid for by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Republican opponent, DeAnna Lorraine, directs those who see it to a petition, located at PelosiForPrison.co, which calls for Pelosi to be jailed for her “crimes against America.” With the banner coming just a day after President Donald Trump’s acquittal in the Pelosi-driven impeachment hearings, it is a sign that some conservatives are moving off of the defensive, and instead focusing on offensive attacks against left-wing figures like Pelosi.

Speaking with Big League Politics, Lorraine states that the banner was a part of her plan to expose Pelosi’s record while in the Congress, along with her “egregious crimes against America.”

“I am running for Congress to clean out the corruption that is Nancy Pelosi. Instead of caring for the people of
San Francisco and advancing their issues on a national scale, she spends her time conducting asinine
impeachments and investigations that amount to absolutely nothing” said DeAnna. “It’s past time we start
hitting her hard on her record of poor leadership and egregious crimes against America, and I look very much
forward to retiring her in November.”

This banner definitely gets that message across, and surely has Nancy Pelosi shaking with rage.

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