On Feb. 28, Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) signed a bill into law that expedites voter registration for California residents.

“AB 1407 will increase voter engagement by removing the unnecessary step of pro-actively registering to vote, increasing the likelihood of a young person voting in future elections,” said Kevin McCarty a Democratic Assemblyman from Sacramento who sponsored the bill.

The bill will automatically pre-register 16 and 17 year olds to vote upon receipt of a California driver’s license or state identification card. Teenagers will then be eligible to vote when they turn 18 without having to take any further action.

However, in California, illegal immigrants are legally allowed to obtain a driver’s license.

“As of January 2015, California residents who cannot establish legal presence in the United States may apply for a driver’s license if they can show eligible proof of identification and residency in the state,” says the California DMV website.

Big League Politics reached out to McCarty’s office to find out if there were any provisions in the bill that prevent illegal immigrants from registering to vote when they obtain a drivers license. His office did not return a request for comment before publication.

Similarly, the city of Chicago is introducing an identification card program called CityKey.

“The Chicago CityKey is an optional, valid, government-issued ID card offered to all Chicago residents that will unlock many of the great things our City has to offer,” says the City Clerk’s office website.

Adversaries of the CityKey say that it will also be allowable as a form of identification for voter registration purposes.

Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar, (D-Ravenswood), claimed that the CityKey will only be used for bus passes and library cards, and that potential voters would need a second form of identification like a social security card in order to register.

Democrats, who have turned their mainstream message into one of radical socialism and expanded government are losing voters in droves. Thus, they need a new group of voters – one that does not care about American values like capitalism and liberty – in order to sustain themselves. Mass groups of unassimilated illegal immigrants are the perfect target.

These tactics are the latest in a clear trend of Democrats trying to meddle in American election systems.

In one of the 10 states won by Donald J. Trump in 2016, where a Democratic senator is up for reelection, Florida’s Sen. C. William Nelson II leads Republican Gov. Richard L. Scott with 44 percent of respondents to Scott’s 39 percent and 17 percent were undecided, according to the Big League-Gravis poll of 5,778 registered Florida voters conducted between Dec. 19 through Dec. 24.

“Back around the same point in 2013 in his reelection campaign, we had a poll that had Rick Scott losing to Charlie Crist, 46 percent to 36 percent, but he pulled it out,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 1.3 percent margin of error.

Rep. Charles J. Crist Jr. (D.-Fla.) was then running as a newly former Republican, who Scott succeeded in the governor’s office. In the 2014 general election, Scott beat Crist with 48 percent to Crist’s 47 percent. Scott has not formally announced that he is running for Senate in 2018.

Kaplan said both Nelson and Scott have strong support from their own parties. “Nelson has the support of 78 percent of Democrats and Scott has the support of 74 percent of Republicans, but among Independents, Nelson has the real advantage with 45 percent of them supporting Nelson and 31 percent supporting the governor.”

Because Democratic Senate candidates had such a successful 2012, of the 33 Senate seats up in 2018, the Democrats are defending 24 seats, in addition to the seats held by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I.-Vt.) and Sen. Angus S. King Jr. (I.-Maine), two Independents, who caucus with the Democrats. It is also important to note that not only are there 10 Democratic Senate seats from states won by Trump up in 2018, Maine makes it 11, if you count the state’s 2nd Congressional District won by the New York City developer.

Maine’s two districts award their electoral votes independent of the statewide total–and Trump collected more than 42,000 more votes than W. Mitt Romney garnered in 2012, and he lost the state to Hillary R. Clinton by less than 20,000 votes.

With the Democrats defending so many seats, Florida looks like a prime opportunity to for the GOP to pick up a seat. The Republicans now hold a 51-49 advantage in the Senate and this cycle could be their last chance to reach 60 for another six years, because of their own gains in 2014 and holds 2016.

The Republicans have not had 60 or more seats, since the Senate election in 1908, when the GOP held 61 out of 92 seats. The last time the Democrats held 60 or more seats was in the Senate session that ran from 2009 to 2011, which was a temporary combination of 58 Democrats and two Independents. Under current Senate rules, 60 votes are required to end debate and force a vote on all non-budget-related legislation. This means that a minority of 41 senators can extend debate indefinitely, a parliamentary maneuver called the filibuster.

Among Florida women voters, Nelson has the edge over Scott with 45 percent compared Scott’s 35 percent and 20 percent of women are undecided. Among men, Nelson and Scott are tied at 43 percent with 14 percent of men undecided.

Broken down by ethnicity, Nelson has the support of 57 percent of African-Americans, 42 percent of Hispanics and 42 percent of whites. Scott has the support of 16 percent of African-Americans, 40 percent of Hispanics and 44 percent of whites.

The Hispanic category is tricky in Florida as it includes both the Cubans, who tend to be more conservative and Republican and the Puerto Ricans, who tend to be more liberal and Democratic.

Forty-four percent of Florida Catholics favor Scott and 41 percent favor Nelson, while Scott has the support of 57 percent of Evangelicals and 26 percent of Jewish voters. Nelson is the choice of 62 percent of Jewish voters and 23 percent of Evangelical voters.

Forty-two percent of poll participants said they approve of Scott’s job performance as governor and 36 percent said they disapproved, but asked about how he did during the recent hurricane season, 70 percent approved of Scott’s performance and only 15 percent disapproved.

Pressed to approve or disapprove of Scott’s job dealing with nursing homes during Hurricane Irma, 44 percent approved and 30 disapproved with 25 percent uncertain.

The Senate race in Florida could be an interesting gauge of the president’s political strength going into the 2020 election cycle. Trump spends significant time at his home and club at Mar-a-Largo in Palm Beach, but his other properties in the state include, Trump National Golf Course in Jupiter, Trump International Golf Club in Palm Beach and Trump National Doral in Miami.

Trump won the state in 2016 and its 29 electoral votes with 454,439 more votes than the 2012 GOP nominee W. Mitt Romney and 380,130 more votes that President Barack Obama in that year.

Fifty-three percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of the president in the poll and 39 percent said they have a favorable opinion.

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results were weighted to match a proprietary turnout model.

Read the complete poll here:
Big League-Gravis Dec. 19-Dec. 24 Florida poll

Read the poll’s crosstabs here:
Crosstabs for Big League-Gravis Dec. 19-Dec. 24 Florida poll

Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam H. Putnam leads the field of gubernatorial hopefuls in the race for the GOP nomination for governor, but ties Democrat Andrew D. Gillum head-to-head, according to the poll of 5,778 registered voters conducted Dec. 19 through Dec. 24.

“This is going to be the most competitive Florida primary in many years,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 1.3 percent margin of error.

Kaplan said the number one question is can the Florida Democratic Party can finally get organized.

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[These results were first published in the Orlando Political Observer.]

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries are scheduled for Aug. 28 and the general election is scheduled for Nov. 6.

“The Democratic field is large, but the race is quickly developing into a two-person race between former congresswoman Gwen Graham at 18 percent and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew D. Gillum at 12 percent,” he said. “The field fills out with businessman Chris King, 3 percent; real estate developer Jeff Greene, 2 percent; and former Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine, 6 percent.

“Gillum is the wild card,” says Kaplan. “If he can raise money in a five-person and race get overwhelming African American support, he has a path to winning the nomination.”

Standing in Gillum’s path for the African-American community is Graham’s legacy of support from her previous campaigns and her endorsement by civil rights legend Rep. John R.  Lewis (D.-Ga.). Graham is also the daughter of former Florida governor and senator D. Robert Graham.

Debemos darles la bienvenida a nuestros compatriotas de Puerto Rico con los brazos abiertos y brindarles un apoyo verdadero. Es hora de hacer algo. https://t.co/qmxDyH8q08

— Gwen Graham (@GwenGraham) December 21, 2017

Kaplan said the Republican side is equally as competitive, he said.

“Putnam has jumped out to an early 23 percent to 12 percent edge over House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Ronald D. DeSantis,” he said.

Head-to-head, Graham and Putnam were tied at 32 percent with 37 percent undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup, Gillum tied Putnam at 31 percent each with 39 percent undecided.

DeSantis has not formally announced whether he is running, but President Donald J. Trump endorsed him Dec. 22.

“If DeSantis declares, he will give Putnam a run for his money,” said Kaplan. “DeSantis has the ability to raise money, which will be important in an expensive state such as Florida. Democrats would likely prefer a DeSantis candidacy since Putnam is considered more of a centrist.”

From our family to yours, have a very Merry Christmas. pic.twitter.com/spJceJoQCX

— Adam Putnam (@adamputnam) December 22, 2017

Following Putnam and DeSantis are former state senator Jack Latvala and Florida Speaker of the House Richard Corcoran, both men had the support of 2 percent of the respondents and Bob White, the leader of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Florida, who has the support of 1 percent.

While the poll was still in the field, Latvala resigned from his state Senate seat, after a 33-page report by a retired judge with sworn statements by Latvala and his accuser detailed incidents of sexual misconduct by the Latvala. Among the accusations were groping and the then-senator’s offer to trade support for legislation in exchange for sexual contact. There are at least six women, who have come forward.

Gillum said it was time for Latvala to resign in a Dec. 5 statement: “It’s time for Senator Latvala to resign from the Senate. His intimidation of a sexual harassment victim is repulsive and disgusting, as is his alleged behavior. I believe these women, and we need Florida’s Capitol to be a welcoming place for all people — not a place where sexual harassment victims need police protection.”

Latvala served in the state Senate for 23 years and in his letter of resignation, he said he quit under pressure from state GOP leaders.

“I have maintained that the charges in the original complaint were fabrications and say that still today,” he wrote. He also maintained that he was guilty of not keeping up with political correctness in his language.

Another wildcard in this political cycle in Florida is attorney John B. Morgan, who has championed the political career of Rep. Charles J. Crist Jr. (D.-Fla.) after he left the Republican Party after his term as governor expired in 2011. Morgan has also been a major booster of the state’s Democratic Party, along with causes, such as the legalization of medical marijuana.

During the Thanksgiving weekend, Morgan Tweeted that he was leaving the Democratic Party and that if he did run for governor, he would run as an Independent.

And I can’t muster enthusiasm for any of today’s politicians. They are all the same. Both parties. I plan to register as an Independent and when I vote, vote for the lesser of two evils. And if I ever ran, run as an Independent. #ForThePeople

— John Morgan (@JohnMorganESQ) November 24, 2017

The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results were weighted to match a proprietary turnout model.

Read the entire poll here:
Big League-Gravis Dec. 19-Dec. 24 Florida poll

Read the crosstabs here:
Crosstabs for Big League-Gravis Dec. 19-Dec. 24 Florida poll

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