Wonder why the Democrats have gone Full Hysteria on Judge Brett Kavanaugh? (You never go Full Hysteria).
Wonder why after Trump was hovering near 50% in approval and well over 16% in black approval a blizzard of new polls came out showing Trump barely scratching 40% and Democrats doing well in state races? (David Garcia is touted in a poll today as being within one of Arizona Governor Doug Ducey.)
These are not accidents or spur-of-the-moment strategies. These are genuine reactions—
The reactions of people terrified of losing absolutely everything.
But . . . but . . . the “blue wave.”
Please. Even Democrat advisors admit there is no such thing. No one in weeks has talked about Democrats gaining 40 seats or more. Instead, they have steadily and cautiously walked it back to simply “control of the House”—by a single seat if necessary. But will they get that seat? Is this what is really behind the Democrat crackup?
In fact, Trump (despite a couple of juiced polls) is right back at 47% in Rasmussen and 48% in Harris, and, as Larry Sabato once said, “You need to add 10 points to any Trump poll.” I don’t know if it’s 10, but certainly Trump is well over 50% in a legitimate poll of likely voters.
With Kavanaugh, the Democrat strategy is puzzling. Why shoot every bit of their “racism/fascism/homophobia/character assassination” ammo on a Republican judge replacing another Republican, even if Anthony Kennedy once in a while “swung around?”
Why not wait until, as is likely, Ruth Ginsberg dies or retires, or the elderly Stephen Breyer retires? This would truly be a major power shift of a Democrat to Republican vote on the Court.
And the answer is simple: The Democrats don’t have that long. Trump is packing the courts faster than FDR ever dreamed. While Corey (BookerT&theMSGs) Booker ranted and raved, our favorite Yertle, Mitch McConnell, pushed through eight more judicial nominees without so much as a peep. There were no circuit court judges confirmed this week because of Cirque-du-Kavanaugh, but he will be confirmed by between 53 and 56 votes as between one and three endangered Democrats slide over to his side. Then Yertle will resume his Sherman-like advance on the Democrats’ Atlanta of judicial dominance. One by one, the circuit courts are flipping.
Oh, and remember this? In the infamous Obamacare decision, Judge Roberts, before issuing the ridiculous reasoning about Obamacare being a tax, very quietly destroyed the ability of activists to use the “Commerce Clause” to advance their agenda. This went unnoticed, for obvious reasons. But it is one more weapon that the left has been deprived of.
Then the radical left is looking at a total blowout in the U.S. Senate. Current polling suggests a net shift of four to six seats to the Republicans, but polls have Leah Vukmir in WI and Jim Renacci in OH within two; Bob Hugin in NJ and Kevin de Leon each within 8 in their states. Other states lay somewhere in between. Both potential Democrat pickups are endanger, with NV’s Dean Heller up by one in one poll, down by a few in another. (Note: NV has seen a net gain of Rs in registration of 13,000 since November 2016). In Arizona, what many thought would be a Democrat pickup suddenly ran into primary reality when the three R candidates—Martha McSally, Kelli Ward, and Joe Arpaio—compiled 120,000 more votes than did Kyrsten Sinema and her impotent opponent. (This was similarly reflected in the governor’s race as mentioned above). In short, Sinema must conjure a 2:1 lead among Arizona independents just to overcome this lead. I don’t see it happening.
All this amounts to this: The Republicans stand poised to at least have a four to six net gain in the Senate, and possibly could reach 60 seats.
Need more evidence of how stinkin’ weak the Democrats really are? A lackluster NM senate candidate, Mick Rich, was performing so poorly against incumbent D Martin Heinrich that Gary (Aleppo) Johnson, the Libertarian candidate for president in 2016 who may have stolen NM for Hillary Clinton, entered the race and now is within ten points of Heinrich—who had led Rich by over 20! Republicans don’t need this seat, but another “indie” in the Senate would further weaken the D caucus.
New England appears poised to have a Republican governor in almost every state. But more telling, in his race for the D nomination in New York, Andrew Cuomo is polling a pathetic three points above Ms. Sex and the City, Cynthia Nixon. And he’s not alone in low poll numbers for an incumbent D governor: in California, Gavin Newsom, once considered a shoe-in, is a mere five points ahead of R John Cox. Previously, California Rs were saying they’d be ecstatic if Cox could just muster 40%—that even such a performance would tremendously bolster other candidates there. But what if he’s actually a contender?
Finally, that brings us to the House. Two weeks ago I thought perhaps 30 House seats were truly “in play,” but that those were firming up in favor of the Rs fairly steadily. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics—which is why pegging the House this far out is a fool’s errand. Nevertheless, this fool rushes in.
Several things have happened. First, the North Carolina court has denied a D redistricting attempt there, almost certainly saving one R House seat and likely two. Second, new polling from many House races (really the first polling in months) shows almost across-the-board R gains:
*KY: Andy Barr (KY6) is now up and I moved him into safe territory.
*TX: all three “endangered” Rs have moved into positive territory, Pete Sessions (TX32), John Culberson (TX7), and Charlie Dent (TX15). I believe all three are safe.
*Sources tell me (even those who don’t like him) that Mike Coffman (CO6) is safe.
*Mia Love (UT4) has at least a 3 point lead. One poll has her up 9, but that’s not plausible. She will win, though.
*Illinois Reps (Pete Roskam, IL6 and Mike Bost IL12) have both moved into positive territory. Not sure I’d put them “safe” yet, but darn close.
*DNCC has stopped spending in Steve Chabot’s district, conceding him the seat in OH1. In OH12, were Troy Balderson just won a special election, OH sources think he is in good shape now. Said one GOP analyst, “He weathered the storm. That was the best they had.”
*While Rs likely will lose FL27, Luis Curbelo (FL26) is thought to be relatively safe now.
*Jason Lewis (MN2) is now moved into safe territory.
That’s 12 seats in two weeks, not even counting the two IL seats that I think are close to safe.
Then there are the potential pickups in NV4, NJ5, and three in MN. It is unclear at this point how contested the McSally House seat in AZ and Kyrsten Sinema’s seat will be. A hold and/or pickup would not be out of the question. In short, there is a possibility of another safe seat here. In Wa, Dino Rossi is well funded and extremely popular in Dave Reichert’s WA8. Rossi always performs well vs. his polling. I think this will be a hold.
California is a wild card, where no fewer than five R seats are contested. Latest polling has the R leading in four, virtually tied in the fifth. But the real news is that Antonio Sabato, Jr., in CA26, who has a chance to unseat the unpopular Julia Brownley (despite a storm of divorce scandal news), and Elizabeth Heng in CA16 both offer chances at D-R flips. There are at least two other CA seats that are vulnerable to flips.
Increasingly the list of “flippable” seats for the Democrats has shrunk, and now is likely at less than 20 (or below the number needed to retake the House). But it’s probably worse than that. When you add in a couple of the unexpected results that always appear in races, and include the D-R flips, today the Democrats are looking at a net gain of likely 15 seats in the House. But that’s the good news for them, because virtually all polling is trending toward the Rs on a national and district level, and in two more weeks this number may be in low single digits.
In short, the odds of the Republicans holding the House went up massively in the last two weeks, and it is still not out of the question for Rs to gain 2-4 net seats before it’s all done.
This is why the Democrats are insane.
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