Electoral Map Highlights Potential America First Senate Primary Challenges to Establishment Republicans

An electoral map created by political analyst Gabe F. Guidarini shows several states where America First candidates could try to primary neoconservative, establishment, and moderate Republican senators.

“Here is an official targeting map for America First candidates primarying moderate, establishment, and/or neoconservative GOP senators. There are 11 primary opportunities, alongside an open seat that we should run in (PA),” Guidarini tweeted.

The two red states indicate retiring Republican senators. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will not seek a third term in 2022, nor will Richard Burr of North Carolina. Guidarini placed a yellow “X” over Pennsylvania, however, because an America First candidate might have a decent chance at winning Toomey’s seat. States without that yellow “X,” such as North Carolina, could be too risky for various reasons.

“The map also factors in that some seats might be too risky (in regards to the general election) to run an [America First] candidate in, similar to Kansas in 2018. So some close races shouldn’t be primaried in regardless of how moderate the incumbent is, simply because of how risky the [general election] is,” Guidarini also tweeted.

Kansas and Kentucky, for example, are pink without an “X,” meaning that a GOP senator is up for reelection but that it would be shortsighted and futile to try to run an America First candidate. America Firsters most certainly remember Kris Kobach losing the Republican primary to Roger Marshall earlier in 2020. And suffice it to say that nobody will be able to (or should try to) primary Rand Paul.

Guidarini identifies Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK), Mike Lee (UT), Tim Scott (SC), Mike Crapo (ID), James Lankford (OK), John Hoeven (ND), John Thune (SD), Richard C. Shelby (AL), John Boozman (AR), Todd Young (IN), and Rob Portman (OH) as the eleven GOP senators who are either neoconservative, establishment, or moderate and who could possibly face a challenge if an America First Republican were to run against them in the primaries.

The America First wing of conservative politics is on the rise and is seeking to play a more significant role on the national stage. As American nationalist Patrick Casey said in his speech at the Stop The Steal rally in Harrisburg, PA, on Saturday: “We have power. We have more power than we presently know. And in order to reclaim that power, we need to send a message to the GOP, and that message is, ‘No, we are not going to vote for you unconditionally. We are by no means going to support people like Dan Crenshaw or Marco Rubio—absolutely not.’ From now on, we will only support America First politicians at every level of government.”

Regardless of how the post-election fight for the presidency and the Georgia Senate runoff go, 2022 will be an important year for America Firsters looking to help mold the GOP into a more nationalistic and socially conservative party.