Is Iran About to Get Nuclear Weapons?
Jose Nino
|
At the present, Iran is in a state of nuclear latency. In other words, it possesses the materials needed to build nuclear weapons should it decide to do so.
Iranian leaders have routinely claimed that they have no intentions of militarizing their nuclear industry.
Historically speaking, public polling dating to the middle of the 2000s has consistently shown that although Iranians are in favor of a civilian nuclear program, the majority of them are against the development of nuclear weapons.
That said, recent polling hints at Iranian citizens warming up to the idea of the Islamic Republic becoming more receptive to the idea of possessing nuclear weapons.
The survey was carried out from February 20 to May 26 by IranPoll, a Toronto-based company. It surveyed 2,280 Iranian citizens that largely reflect the demographic makeup of the national population, with specific quotas with respect to the respondents’ age, gender, income, and region.
The survey featured two questions about Iran’s nuclear program. First, to what degree those polled agreed or disagreed with the statement that “Iran should be able to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.” They had four options to choose from: “strongly agree,” “somewhat agree,” “somewhat disagree,” and “strongly disagree.”
92% of respondents either strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement.
Respondents were subsequently asked to what degree they agreed or disagreed with the statement that “Iran should possess nuclear weapons.” They had the same response options. North of 69% of them responded they back Iran pursuing nuclear weapons.
Such positions are the opposite of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fatwa (a legal ruling based on Islamic law) against the development and use of nuclear weapons.
Such sentiments come at a time when the Israeli-American axis has been coming to blows with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. On April 1, 2024, Israel launched an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, with Iran responding in kind with drone and missile attacks on Israel on April 13.
Average support for Iran acquiring nuclear weapons already hovered around 67% before the April 1 attack and surged to 71% after the attack.
Notably, among respondents who “strongly agree” with the possession of nuclear weapons, before April 1, 40% agreed with that sentiment. However, after the Israeli attack, that figure increased to 48%.
The Iranian regime’s official nuclear policy nominally rejects the development and use of weapons of mass destruction. In the last few months, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has stressed that nuclear weapons do not form part of the Islamic Republic’s defense strategy.
In the last few decades, the US has been pursuing a hawkish foreign policy against Iran, ranging from sanctions to direct assassinations of military leaders like Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassim Suleimani in 2020.
Irrespective of these moves, Iran seems undeterred from pursuing nukes nor contracting its influence operations in the Middle East. Nukes are ultimately the best way for a nation to secure its sovereignty in the dog eat world of geopolitics. On top of that, the further hawkish the US and Israel get towards Iran, the more likely that the Iranian leadership class will pursue nukes due to external pressure and even domestic demands for such weapons.
At some point, the US must come to grips with the harsh reality that its foreign policy towards Iran has utterly failed.
Share: