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Big League Economics

Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Skyrocket in Hours Following Testimony

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Betting Odds for Kavanaugh's Confirmation

Following his testimony before Congress on Thursday afternoon, betting odds for Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation to the Supreme Court of the United States rose by over 30 per cent.

The first Senate vote for Kavanaugh’s confirmation may not be scheduled until Saturday, but online betting odds for the Supreme Court nominee have already swung upward following his passionate defense against accusations levied against him before the Senate on Thursday morning.

Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed by October 31 rose by as much as 39 percent during Thursday’s events. They rose more than 20 percent in the hours following Kavanaugh’s passionate defense.

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Thursday night at 10 p.m., Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed rose to an all time high of 77 percent according to Election Betting Odds, a website that tracks online betting websites PredictIt and Betfair.

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On PredictIt, recent traders not only bet that Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice, but that he will be confirmed by 53 votes in the Senate. For this scenario to play out, all Senate Republicans would need to vote for Kavanaugh and two Senate Democrats, likely West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and another, would need to cross their party line and vote to confirm Kavanaugh.

Mainstream media reporters have indicated Manchin’s positive attitude toward Kavanaugh, and indicated that without compelling reason to believe the cases made against Kavanaugh he will vote for his confirmation.

It remains to be seen if Senate Republicans will stand together to confirm Kavanaugh, and it remains even more unclear whether red state Democrats will risk their party’s distaste by crossing the aisle to please their pro-Trump constituents, but it is worth noting that betting odds have proven to be as effective as polls in the past, and academic research has shown they can be more accurate than traditional polling in the run-up to major votes, or when traditional polling is not possible.

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Big League Economics

Dairy Farmers Dump Thousands of Gallons of Milk Down the Drain as Economy Halts Due to Coronavirus

The economic disaster is beginning.

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Dairy farmers are being forced to dump thousands of gallons of milk down the drain due to the economic slowdown resulting from coronavirus fears.

The dairy industries of the United States and Canada are suffering mightily because of the coronavirus panic. Even as individuals are desperate to buy essential goods and stock up for a crisis, there is far too much supply for the moribund consumer markets.

John Walker of Walker Dairy Inc. in Ontario said that he has been jettisoning his milk supply since last week due to the economic crunch.

“There is just nowhere for it to go,” Walker said to CTV News London on Sunday. “Schools, restaurants, and even Tim Hortons’ amount of cream is down. Those are all things that have slowed down demand for our product right now.”

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“The dramatic changes in demand and the related challenges being felt throughout the supply chain have resulted in the need for the disposal of some raw milk, which is extremely unfortunate and difficult,” the Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) said in a statement released last week.

Nikki Boxler, who owns and operates the Boxler Dairy in Varysburg, New York, says that her small, family-owned dairy farm is in shambles.

“Watching your hard work literally go down the drain is heart-wrenching. The wasted product represents our livelihood and the massive amount of hard work that takes place year-round to produce it,” she said Sunday in a Facebook post.

Boxler believes that the dairy industry is suffering due to milk’s perishable nature. This is causing the industry to be “hit harder and earlier than other agricultural commodities” by her estimation.

One Wisconsin farmer was forced to dispose of an incredible 56,000 pounds of milk, citing restaurant closures as being particularly devastating to his farm.

“It’s really depressing,” said Mark Mueller, owner of Mueller Dairy Farm. “It’s like all your hard work just running down the drain.”

Wisconsin dairy farmers are asking for a bailout from the U.S. Department of Agriculture in order to stay afloat. They hope to receive the assistance through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act or CARES Act until normalcy can be returned, if that is even possible at this point.

While alarmists like Dr. Fauci call for an open-ended shutdown of society to fight coronavirus, millions of lives are being destroyed due to the economic damage caused by the government overreach. The dairy industry is the canary in the coalmine, and the rest of the market is likely to follow.

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