Big League Economics
Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Skyrocket in Hours Following Testimony
Following his testimony before Congress on Thursday afternoon, betting odds for Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation to the Supreme Court of the United States rose by over 30 per cent.
The first Senate vote for Kavanaugh’s confirmation may not be scheduled until Saturday, but online betting odds for the Supreme Court nominee have already swung upward following his passionate defense against accusations levied against him before the Senate on Thursday morning.
Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed by October 31 rose by as much as 39 percent during Thursday’s events. They rose more than 20 percent in the hours following Kavanaugh’s passionate defense.
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Thursday night at 10 p.m., Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed rose to an all time high of 77 percent according to Election Betting Odds, a website that tracks online betting websites PredictIt and Betfair.
On PredictIt, recent traders not only bet that Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice, but that he will be confirmed by 53 votes in the Senate. For this scenario to play out, all Senate Republicans would need to vote for Kavanaugh and two Senate Democrats, likely West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and another, would need to cross their party line and vote to confirm Kavanaugh.
Mainstream media reporters have indicated Manchin’s positive attitude toward Kavanaugh, and indicated that without compelling reason to believe the cases made against Kavanaugh he will vote for his confirmation.
Interesting: A source close to Senator Manchin tells me now, “Short of claims that definitively prove Dr. Ford’s allegations or a realization that Kavanaugh will gut the healthcare law, Manchin will side with the overwhelming number of people in WV who want Kavanaugh confirmed.”
— Elaina Plott (@elainaplott) September 28, 2018
“Manchin likes Kavanaugh and has always wanted to find a way to support him.”
— Elaina Plott (@elainaplott) September 28, 2018
It remains to be seen if Senate Republicans will stand together to confirm Kavanaugh, and it remains even more unclear whether red state Democrats will risk their party’s distaste by crossing the aisle to please their pro-Trump constituents, but it is worth noting that betting odds have proven to be as effective as polls in the past, and academic research has shown they can be more accurate than traditional polling in the run-up to major votes, or when traditional polling is not possible.
Big League Economics
SHAME: Democrats Are Blocking Stimulus Legislation That Includes Second $1,200 TrumpBux Check
Democrats in Congress are blocking a bipartisan $1.5 trillion stimulus package that includes a second round of $1,200 TrumpBux payments to Americans.
Leading House Democrats are saying the bill isn’t big enough of a giveaway, but they favor stimulus measures that would divert funds away from the pockets of everyday Americans to institutions. They want to bail out Democrat state and local governments, and are willing to block TrumpBux payments to Americans if they aren’t allowed to.
The House passed a $3.4 trillion stimulus package in May that was shot down by Senate Republicans. The latest $1.4 stimulus legislation has been presented as a compromise, after House Democrats in turn rejected a thin $500 billion stimulus package proposed by Republicans last week. That package did not include a second round of $1,200 payments, and Republicans are now willing to sign off on another TrumpBux payment in order to pass another round of stimulus.
The $1.5 trillion stimulus legislation emerged from the Problem Solvers Caucus, a group of 25 Republicans and 25 Democrats who emphasize bipartisanship and common ground. Aside from TrumpBux 2, it features $500 billion for cities and states, unemployment insurance of $600 a week, increased SNAP benefits and rental assistance.
Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi are claiming the legislation doesn’t go far enough and that it “leaves too many needs unmet.”
Pelosi and House Democrats are insisting that Congress will remain in session until a second stimulus agreement is met, but in rejecting the Problem Solvers Caucus legislation they’re already shown they’re not open to a generous compromise.
Try asking everyday working Americans of all stripes and walks of life if they’re willing to wait or even go without a second $1,200 stimulus payment in order to provide a bigger bailout to states and cities that already engage in questionable budgetary practices to begin with. The Democrats are resolutely determined to avoid making people the priority in a stimulus package, and will block stimulus legislation to do so.
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