Big League Economics
Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Skyrocket in Hours Following Testimony
Following his testimony before Congress on Thursday afternoon, betting odds for Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation to the Supreme Court of the United States rose by over 30 per cent.
The first Senate vote for Kavanaugh’s confirmation may not be scheduled until Saturday, but online betting odds for the Supreme Court nominee have already swung upward following his passionate defense against accusations levied against him before the Senate on Thursday morning.
Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed by October 31 rose by as much as 39 percent during Thursday’s events. They rose more than 20 percent in the hours following Kavanaugh’s passionate defense.
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Thursday night at 10 p.m., Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed rose to an all time high of 77 percent according to Election Betting Odds, a website that tracks online betting websites PredictIt and Betfair.
On PredictIt, recent traders not only bet that Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice, but that he will be confirmed by 53 votes in the Senate. For this scenario to play out, all Senate Republicans would need to vote for Kavanaugh and two Senate Democrats, likely West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and another, would need to cross their party line and vote to confirm Kavanaugh.
Mainstream media reporters have indicated Manchin’s positive attitude toward Kavanaugh, and indicated that without compelling reason to believe the cases made against Kavanaugh he will vote for his confirmation.
Interesting: A source close to Senator Manchin tells me now, “Short of claims that definitively prove Dr. Ford’s allegations or a realization that Kavanaugh will gut the healthcare law, Manchin will side with the overwhelming number of people in WV who want Kavanaugh confirmed.”
— Elaina Plott (@elainaplott) September 28, 2018
“Manchin likes Kavanaugh and has always wanted to find a way to support him.”
— Elaina Plott (@elainaplott) September 28, 2018
It remains to be seen if Senate Republicans will stand together to confirm Kavanaugh, and it remains even more unclear whether red state Democrats will risk their party’s distaste by crossing the aisle to please their pro-Trump constituents, but it is worth noting that betting odds have proven to be as effective as polls in the past, and academic research has shown they can be more accurate than traditional polling in the run-up to major votes, or when traditional polling is not possible.
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