Florida is undoubtedly going to be one of the most important battleground states during the 2020 elections. One voter demographic that will play a pivotal role in delivering a Florida victory for President Donald Trump are Hispanics. Pew Research reported that 2.5 million Hispanics are registered to vote in Florida during the 2020 presidential election. This represents 17 percent of the state’s total electorate and a 1 percent increase since 2016, when Florida state government data demonstrated that there were 2 million Hispanics registered to vote.
Florida has the largest Hispanic electorate of all battleground states and has the largest Hispanic voting bloc (3.1 million) behind California (7.9 million), and Texas (5.6 million).
From 2000 to 2018, the Hispanic share of Florida’s electorate increased by 9 percentage points. It was at 11 percent of eligible voters in 2000 and 20 percent at 2018. Right now, a record 32 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in 2020.
Technically, Democrats outnumber Republicans when it comes to the Hispanic vote in Florida. In 2020, 948,000 Hispanic voters are registered as Democrats (roughly 38 percent of Florida’s Hispanic total in Florida), while about 640,000 are registered Republicans (26 percent of the total). 880,000 Hispanic Floridians are registered with no party affiliation (35 percent of the total).
Cubans (29 percent) and Puerto Ricans (27 percent) are Florida’s top two largest Hispanic groups among eligible voters. The fastest growing group of Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State are Venezuelans, who grew by 184 percent from 2008 to 2018. At the moment, Venezuelans constitute 2 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida.
Hispanic eligible voters in Florida are more likely to be immigrants, younger, and have graduated college. Additionally, they’ll also be less proficient in English.
According to an NBC News/Marist poll taken in September, Trump is leading Hispanics 50 percent to 46 percent in Florida. Additionally, 56 percent of Hispanics supported Governor Ron DeSantis’s E-Verify measure to ensure that illegal aliens are not getting hired at private companies.
Yes, Hispanics are a solid base for nationalists to tap into provided that they don’t Hispander like their spineless neoconservative predecessors. The key is to focus on law and order issues and stopping mass migration. Hopefully, the GOP takes not of that.
POLL: Trump is Neck and Neck With Biden in Florida
President Donald Trump has just taken the lead for the first time in Florida, according to a RealClearPolitics poll released on October 27, 2020, despite Democrats lead in early voting.
The website’s average of polls shows that Trump holds a razor thin 0.4 percent advantage over his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. About 2.7 million Democrats have already cast their ballots in the Sunshine State, a narrow lead over the approximately 2.4 million Republicans who voted early. Approximately 1.3 million Floridians cast votes without any party affiliation.
Florida is an electorally crucial state. Democrats have won the general election only twice without winning Florida since 1860. John Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 and Bill Clinton in 1992 without picking up Florida.
Trump beat Hilary Clinton by a razor thin 1.2 percent margin in 2016.
However, there might be a recent twist in the nature of the Florida battle. On October 28, 2020, RealClearPolitics noted that race between Trump and Biden is effectively tied. These numbers will likely fluctuate from here until November 3, 2020.
Florida is rather interesting because of its Caribbean Hispanic voting demographic, which does not vote as solidly Democrat as other Hispanic groups in the state. Trump’s nationalist message has likely made inroads with this demographic, along with working class whites in Florida’s Panhandle.
Trump must continue positioning himself as the sole nationalist candidate in this race. Campaigning as a generic Conservatism Inc. candidate will put voters to sleep and likely threaten Trump’s chances in the Sunshine State. Trump should take note and ignore all conventional wisdom.
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