Campaign 2020
NECK AND NECK: Polling in Battleground States is Closer Than It Was in 2016
This is a close one.
An aggregate of state poll in the most crucial polls in the 2020 election reveal that the election is even closer than the 2016 presidential election. Hillary Clinton led in an average swing state polls by 4.6% on August 30, 2016, whereas Joe Biden leads by only a razor thin margin of 2.7% today.
RealClearPolitics counts Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona as their Top Battlegrounds swing states, and has averaged a polling index of every poll taken in the states on a rolling basis.
The polling aggregate also doesn’t take swing states such as Minnesota into account. The Trump campaign has increasingly targeted the reliably blue state(voted for a Democrat in every Presidential election since 1972), with many residents of the states sick of the damages inflicted by Black Lives Matter race rioters onto their community.
The latest Trafalgar Group poll shows the President leading by 47% to 45% in Michigan, representing the reversal of a 10% lead on the part of Joe Biden some pollsters had claimed their surveys were demonstrating.
Mainstream media organizations have entirely ceased releasing national and state polls since the Democratic convention, perhaps indicating a reluctance to release polls that show establishment Democrat Joe Biden’s seemingly insurmountable lead being cut down to size or eliminated entirely.
Expect Biden to emerge from his basement to engage in a handful of carefully planned public events in which he’ll take one or two scripted questions. And perhaps plans from leading Democrats for their candidate to skip the presidential debates are permanently on ice.
Campaign 2020
Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election
This is even more important than polls.
The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.
Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.
Pennsylvania Republicans Outpacing Democrats in New Voter Registration By 135,000
Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.
Did some further number crunching on the newly registered 57,000 voters in Maricopa, including those from #VoterRegistrationDay that have been input in the system. So far, good news for GOP.
GOP: +24,753 (43%)
DEM: +14,815 (26%)
Other: +16,966 (29%)— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) September 24, 2020
President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.
Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.
The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.
If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.
These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.
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