Three Virginia political science professors told Big League Politics Tuesday’s gubernatorial election between Republican Edward W. Gillespie and Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam, gives them a read on the commonwealth’s shifting electorate and the political fortunes of President Donald J. Trump.
“Everybody wants to know a year into the Trump presidency how the two political parties are doing,” said University of Virginia Professor of Politics John M. Owen IV.
University of Richmond Professor of Political Science Daniel J. Palazzolo said he agreed with Owen.
“The baseline assumption is that people are looking at this race as an indicator of the presidency,” Palazzolo said.
However, using the gubernatorial race as a barometer to measure Trump’s success may be reading too much into the race, he said.
“Gillespie has been pretty good at distancing himself from Trump without losing the base,” he said. “He’s aligned himself with Trump on immigration, but distanced himself from Trump’s personality.”
Palazzolo said Gillespie’s strategy of agreeing with Trump, but not being agreeable with Trump makes is difficult for the vote to a clear reflection of how the president is doing.
It is important to remember, too, that regardless of the candidate, Virginia Republicans have a better record at turning out for this off-cycle election, he said.
The underlying subtext of the race is the shift in voter demographics that Virginia has seen over the past two decades, Owen said.
“The conventional wisdom is that Virginia is moving from the red column to the purple column as people from other places around the country, generally more socially liberal, are moving into the Northern Virginia suburbs,” he said.
“If Gillespie wins, it will fly in the face of how Virginia has recently changed from red to purple to light blue,” said Professor Richard Dagger, the chairman of the Department of Political Science at the University of Richmond.
Dagger said he also sees this shift in the electorate as the large influx of Democrats moving into Northern Virginia.
Palazzolo said the anti-Trump sentiment could be enough to push Northam across the finish line, but that Gillespie is not to be underestimated.
The polls in Virginia will be open Tuesday from 6 a.m. through 7 p.m.
HUGE: Court Documents Reveal Shot Kenosha Rioter Joseph Rosenbaum Was a Convicted Child Rapist
Convicted pedophile Joseph Rosenbaum was killed in an altercation at the Kenosha riots.
New court documents of the Pima County, Arizona circuit court reveal that Joseph Rosenbaum was convicted of various sex crimes against children in Arizona in 2002.
Rosenbaum was killed in an altercation while rioting in Kenosha, Wisconsin last week. He is seen on camera lunging at 17-year old Kyle Rittenhouse, who eventually shot him, claiming he acted in self defense when Rosenbaum attempted to take the AR-15 rifle he was carrying. Rittenhouse attempted to flee the scene, and was pursued by two other rioters, one armed with a gun. He tripped and fell, and when the other rioters assailed him, he shot them both. Rosenbaum and one other rioter were killed, and a third wounded. Rittenhouse has been charged with first-degree murder in the shootings.
Watch video of the shootings and decide for yourself.
Shortly after Rosenbaum was identified as one of the deceased individuals, it became public knowledge that he was on the Wisconsin sex offender registry, for crimes committed in Arizona.
— Richard (@Wildman_AZ) August 27, 2020
The man who may very well have set off the violent altercation is a convicted pedophile, judging from the court documents that were published Wednesday. A presentence report reveals that Rosenbaum committed a range of sex crimes against several boys from the ages of nine to eleven years old, including outright rape.
More documents reveal the legal proceedings against Rosenbaum.
Rosenbaum would be convicted of two of the eleven total charges.
Some leftists had speculated that Rosenbaum was merely a victim of the criminal justice system upon the revelation that he was a convicted sex offender, claiming he had been merely been railroaded for sexual activity with his 17-year old girlfriend as an adult, or something of the like. The new documents disprove such an assertion, demonstrating that Rosenbaum was convicted for some of the most heinous child sex crimes known to society, including the outright rape of children.
Previous criminal records of parties involved in use-of-force incidences aren’t usually admissible in court cases, but Rittenhouse’s argument of self defense appears more credible when his word is placed against the conduct of a convicted pedophile.
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