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Campaign 2020

POLL: 59% of American Voters Don’t Expect Biden To Finish Out 2020 Presidential Term

Not exactly a vote of confidence.

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New polling from Rasmussen Reports released Monday reveals that a 59% of likely voters don’t expect Democratic nominee to finish out a tentative presidential term in the event he’s elected in November.

A considerable 39% of voters say it’s “very likely” Biden will leave office before completing a full term, and an additional 20% say it’s likely. Even a very strong plurality of Democrats suspect that Biden isn’t going to spend a full term as President, with 49% stating that they expect his Vice President to become President.

73% of Republicans and 57% of independents suspect the same outcome.

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Biden’s supporters seem relatively ambivalent about their candidate’s merits, with the notion of simply voting against Trump being enough for the Democrat nominee to secure their support. 45% of all voters described Biden’s imminent choice of a running mate as important to their vote this fall, possibly suggesting that Biden’s vice presidential pick could make or break his candidacy. If Biden chooses someone who the public views as unsuitable for the presidency, it’s unlikely that voters who think he’ll leave office will be enthusiastic about supporting him.

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Biden has been consistently questioned for what many are identifying as cognitive decline. The 77-year old former Vice President would be the oldest President to be inaugurated by far, and he has been publicly lukewarm about the hypothetical notion of seeking a second term in office if elected President.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between August 6th and 9th.

It seems like the opposite of a sound democratic practice for a major political party to nominate a presidential candidate who is expected to leave office before a full term, but the Democratic Party seems fine with using Biden as a placeholder of sorts for his vice presidential candidate.

Campaign 2020

Republican Voter Registration is Surging in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the Runup to the November Election

This is even more important than polls.

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The Republican Party is handily registering more voters than Democrats in the critical swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the advance of the 2020 presidential election, a strong sign for the GOP in the competitive states.

Republicans have registered more than 135,000 voters to their party than Democrats have since 2016, a handy lead in a state in which the margin of victory was 44,000. Pennsylvania is probably the most critical state in the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania Republicans Outpacing Democrats in New Voter Registration By 135,000

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Republicans have registered a strong plurality of the new voters to register in Arizona since August, with 43% of these voters aligning as Republican. 26% have registered as Democrats, and 29% registered with no party affiliation or with another political party.

President Trump won the southwestern state by 4.5% in 2016, with rapid population growth and immigration turning Arizona into a purple state.

Republicans appear to be crushing Democrats in decisive fashion in the voter registration struggle in Florida, registering a whopping 41% more voters than the Democrat Party is in the state. The GOP registered 58,000 new Republican voters in August alone, a 91% increase when compared to August of 2016. Leading Democrats have even been sounding the alarm in the state, having lost it in 2016 with a far greater numerical voting lead then they’ll have this time.

The Joe Biden campaign has largely refrained from traditional political activism and door-knocking in the state, preferring to let their candidate speak through appearances on Sunday shows and softball interviews.

If the President wins these three states, he’s in an extremely strong position for victory, even if Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He’d need to hold North Carolina and Ohio to end up with 274 electoral college votes in this scenario.

These statistics are more pertinent than polls with highly questionable methodologies and flawed participant selection methods.

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