Big League Polls

POLL: Real Clear Politics Shows a Tightening Race in Pennsylvania

Published

4 months ago

Oct 28, 2020

Pennsylvania is going to be one of the most important battleground states in the 2020 election.

Many pundits have described it as a potential “tipping point” state, that could propel both candidates — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — to victory should they win it this election cycle.

According to recent polls, the Pennsylvania race has only tightened down the home stretch. As of October 27, 2020, Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden leads Trump 49.6 at 45.8 on the RealClear Politics poll for Pennsylvania.

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Back inn July 28, 2020 Biden was leading Trump 49.4 to 43.1. Although the former Vice President still maintains the lead, there is a clear sign that Trump is catching up following a final debate where some of Biden’s weaknesses were exposed following a controversial comment on natural gas.

President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.4 points in 2016, after polls had failed Democrat presidential candidate Hilary Clinton leading by 1.9 points right before the election. This, along with Trump’s pickups in Michigan and Wisconsin, marked a major breakthrough for Republicans and showed the power of Trump’s America First nationalist message.

Now, we’re back in the home stretch. Biden has already made major gaffes by calling Trump supporters “chumps” and even explicitly calling for the end to regular oil production. Trump must capitalize on these mistakes and re-emphasize his successes against China regarding tariffs.

Pennsylvania voters don’t need to hear about the wonders of tax cuts but rather about the nationalist policy set Trump has to offer on issues of trade, immigration, and natural gas sector production. Trump has spent significant time campaigning in Pennsylvania, knowing full well that this state may determine the outcome of the entire race.

He should be focusing on the Keystone state and other Midwest states he flipped so that he can cruise on to victory by even more comfortable margins that he did in 2016.

Big League Polls

POLL: Trump is Neck and Neck With Biden in Florida

Published

4 months ago

Oct 29, 2020

Jose Nino

President Donald Trump has just taken the lead for the first time in Florida, according to a RealClearPolitics poll released on October 27, 2020, despite Democrats lead in early voting.

The website’s average of polls shows that Trump holds a razor thin 0.4 percent advantage over his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. About 2.7 million Democrats have already cast their ballots in the Sunshine State, a narrow lead over the approximately 2.4 million Republicans who voted early. Approximately 1.3 million Floridians cast votes without any party affiliation.

Florida is an electorally crucial state. Democrats have won the general election only twice without winning Florida since 1860. John Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 and Bill Clinton in 1992 without picking up Florida.

Trump beat Hilary Clinton by a razor thin 1.2 percent margin in 2016.

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However, there might be a recent twist in the nature of the Florida battle. On October 28, 2020, RealClearPolitics noted that race between Trump and Biden is effectively tied. These numbers will likely fluctuate from here until November 3, 2020.

Florida is rather interesting because of its Caribbean Hispanic voting demographic, which does not vote as solidly Democrat as other Hispanic groups in the state. Trump’s nationalist message has likely made inroads with this demographic, along with working class whites in Florida’s Panhandle.

Trump must continue positioning himself as the sole nationalist candidate in this race. Campaigning as a generic Conservatism Inc. candidate will put voters to sleep and likely threaten Trump’s chances in the Sunshine State. Trump should take note and ignore all conventional wisdom.