POLL: Republicans are Projected to be a Safe Bet to Retake Congress

As the 2022 midterms are less than a year,  Republicans appear to have a commanding lead in their efforts to retake Congress. 

According to a recent report by Rasmussen Reports, 51% of likely U.S. voters would pull the lever for the Republican candidate. On the other hand, 38% would vote for the Democrat. Only 3% would vote for some other candidate and another 8% are unsure. 

For reference, the Rassmussen study showed that in January 2018, Democrats had an 8-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question. This was the year Democrats took the back House for the first time in 8 years.

This margin narrowed as the 2018 midterms approached and was actually a statiscal dead heat — Republicans 46% to Democrats 45% in the final poll prior to Democrats’ successful effort to retake the House, while Republicans picked up several seats in the Senate that year. 

The 13-point advantage Republicans hold in this recent poll is greater than any lead Democrats held at any point during the 2018 election cycle. Rasmussen Reports attributes this due to “greater GOP partisan intensity and a wide advantage among independents.”

89% of Republican voters indicated they would vote for their own party’s candidate. However, Democrats weren’t as enthusiastic about voting for their own party’s candidate, with 77% of Democrat voters saying that they would vote for a Democrat in the 2018 midterms. 

Among independent voters, 48% would vote Republican and 26% would vote Democrat, with an additional 17% being undecided.

56% of white voters, 30% of black voters, and 47% of other minority voters would pull the lever for Republicans if the election were held today. By contrast, 63% of black voters, 33% of white voters, and 38% of other minorities would vote for Democratic candidates.

When it comes to income brackets, Republicans’ strongest advantage is among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually — 55% to 37%.

The Republican advantage is smaller among college attendees and Democrats hold a slim edge  — 46% to 44% — among postgraduate degree holders. 

Historically, the first midterm for a given presidency sees the party out of power make significant gains, if not win outright in one or both chambers of Congress.

All things considered, Republicans’ chances of taking over the House are actually quite strong. 

Nevertheless, populists should still remain vigilant and work to make sure that solid, America First Republicans get elected to office. The 2022 midterms are one of the first opportunities for nationalists to flex their muscles in the Biden era. This is when an America First roster in Congress can begin to be built. 

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