Republicans Have a Significant Lead Against Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot

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With the 2022 midterm elections less than a year away. Republicans hold a comfortable lead in  their efforts to retake control of Congress.

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republicans candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat in the 2022 midterms.

Only 4% would vote for some other candidate  and another 9% are unsure. 

Since November. Democrats have slightly narrowed the gap in the generic congressional ballot. At that time, the GOP held an impressive 13-point advantage

In January 2018, prior to Democrats attaining their first House majority in 8 years, Democrats held an 8-point advantage (45%-37%) in the generic ballot question.  This margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms approached, and reached a statistical dead heat — Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%.

The 9-point edge Republicans hold in the latest poll is larger than what Democrats enjoyed at any period during the 2018 midterm cycle, largely due to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents.

Although 87% of Republican voters said they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Of the voters who are politically unaffiliated, 44% would vote for a Republican candidate and 27% would vote for a Democrat. However, 9% would vote for another candidate and 20% are undecided. 

53% of whites, 30% of black voters, and 41% of other minorities would pull the lever for Republicans if the midterms were held today.  57% of black voters, 35% of whites, and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

As far as income is concerned, Republicans hold a significant advantage — 50% to 35% —  among voters making between $30,000 and $50,000 annually. Democrats have a 15-point advantage, 54% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes of $200,000 or more.  

The overwhelming majority of voters are mostly concerned about violent crime, and they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle these issues by a significant margin

National populists are correct about focusing on crime. This is an easy issue to campaign on. The more people in this space listen to the grievances of voters, the more success they will have at the ballot box. 

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