Sorry Joe, If Polls 18 Months Out Were Accurate Then Hillary Would Be President
Democrats and #NeverTrump Republicans alike are celebrating new polling showing former vice president Joe Biden enjoying a double digit lead over President Donald Trump, though if the 2016 election is any indication, the celebrations are almost certainly premature.
A Quinnipiac University poll released June 11 shows nearly every Democrat beating President Trump in 2020, with Biden polling at 53 per cent to the sitting president’s 40 per cent. Nearly every candidate enjoys a comfortable lead over President Trump, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Cory Booker.
CBS News called it a “landslide”, and was echoed by The Hill who called it “landslides proportions”. Even the formerly conservative network, Fox News, said the polling information represents “Warning signs for Trump”.
It appears these mainstream media outlets completely forgot the last election, when a poll revealed that failed-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton polled even better against President Trump than Biden, and was released at virtually the same time in the campaign cycle.
The poll, released by Quinnipiac University on May 28, 2015, showed President Trump was the candidate least likely to beat Clinton in a general election.
The poll showed Clinton trouncing President Trump with an 18 point advantage over him, higher than any other Republican presidential contender. Clinton was also expected to beat Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Sen. Ted Cruz, but all by narrower margins. President Trump was the only candidate expected to lose to Clinton by nearly 20 points.
Even polls slightly closer to the election seem fairly useless when one considers that pesky thing called history.
Yet another Quinnipiac University poll, conducted in December of 2011, showed Mitt Romney narrowly beating President Barack Obama in key battleground states that would have almost certainly secured his presidency.
This may lead some to wonder if mainstream media websites are giddily reporting this latest poll as an attempt at either wish fulfillment or as an attempt to dishearten President Trump’s vocal, dedicated base of supporters.