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Sorry Joe, If Polls 18 Months Out Were Accurate Then Hillary Would Be President

Democrats are celebrating a poll showing Joe Biden trouncing President Trump 18 months out, even though polls from 2015 showed Hillary Clinton doing the same.

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Polls 18 Months Out Hillary President

Democrats and #NeverTrump Republicans alike are celebrating new polling showing former vice president Joe Biden enjoying a double digit lead over President Donald Trump, though if the 2016 election is any indication, the celebrations are almost certainly premature.

A Quinnipiac University poll released June 11 shows nearly every Democrat beating President Trump in 2020, with Biden polling at 53 per cent to the sitting president’s 40 per cent. Nearly every candidate enjoys a comfortable lead over President Trump, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Cory Booker.

CBS News called it a “landslide”, and was echoed by The Hill who called it “landslides proportions”. Even the formerly conservative network, Fox News, said the polling information represents “Warning signs for Trump”.

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It appears these mainstream media outlets completely forgot the last election, when a poll revealed that failed-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton polled even better against President Trump than Biden, and was released at virtually the same time in the campaign cycle.

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The poll, released by Quinnipiac University on May 28, 2015, showed President Trump was the candidate least likely to beat Clinton in a general election.

The poll showed Clinton trouncing President Trump with an 18 point advantage over him, higher than any other Republican presidential contender. Clinton was also expected to beat Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Sen. Ted Cruz, but all by narrower margins. President Trump was the only candidate expected to lose to Clinton by nearly 20 points.

Even polls slightly closer to the election seem fairly useless when one considers that pesky thing called history.

Yet another Quinnipiac University poll, conducted in December of 2011, showed Mitt Romney narrowly beating President Barack Obama in key battleground states that would have almost certainly secured his presidency.

This may lead some to wonder if mainstream media websites are giddily reporting this latest poll as an attempt at either wish fulfillment or as an attempt to dishearten President Trump’s vocal, dedicated base of supporters.

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Campaign 2020

POLL: 15% of Sanders Supporters Plan to Vote For Donald Trump in November

They prefer Trump to an establishment Democrat.

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New polling from ABC suggests that Donald Trump is primed to win over a significant share of Bernie Sanders primary voters in the November general election, suggesting that some of Bernie’s Bros don’t intend to bend the knee to likely establishment Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The poll reveals that 15% of self-identifying Bernie Sanders supporters already plan on voting for Trump in November. President Trump ultimately ended up winning the votes of 12% of 2016 Sanders supporters, suggesting he’s increased his appeal to the democratic socialist’s supporters.

Some centrist Democrats have expressed their personal distaste of Sanders(and some Gabbard) supporters on account of their perceived unwillingness to vote for the Democratic nominee, forgetting that it’s the obligation of American political candidates to win the votes of citizens who chose to support their opponents in primaries.

While Trump and Sanders are on opposite ends of the American political spectrum, they could be compared in a sense that they’re both considered political populists. Trump’s policy positions on trade, some foreign policy, and American manufacturing are closer to the Sanders’ views than Joe Biden’s reheated neoliberal political program.

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Perhaps even more significantly, the poll shows that Biden gauges the lowest ever recorded “enthusiasm level” for a Democratic Presidential nominee. A paltry 24% of likely Biden voters describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” to vote for him in November.

With a voter base that seems lethargic in an unprecedented fashion, it’s possible that Joe Biden could go down as the most “low energy” major Presidential candidate in recent American political history.

The poll’s general election survey reveals a tight contest between Biden and Trump, with the former Vice President leading within the margin of error by 49% to 47%. Trump’s polling has improved significantly in recent weeks in ABC’s surveys, in part because of high public approval of the federal response to the Chinese coronavirus epidemic.

Biden seems to have largely disappeared from the national conversation in the wake of the historical epidemic, only sparsely appearing on public broadcasts in bizarre gaffe-filled livestreams from a converted recreation room in his Delaware home.

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