Arizona’s public records show Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in the number of returned early ballots by a 15-point lead in the week since early voting began.

Early voting began in Arizona on October 10, and in the last week the state has received more than 200,000 returned early voting ballots. Of them, 45.3 per cent have been returned by registered Republicans, 31.9 per cent have been returned by Democrats, and 22.3 per cent were returned by unaffiliated or independent voters.

In just one week of early voting, almost 100,000 Arizona Republicans have returned their ballots, compared to only 65,000 Democrats.

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Arizona has been heavily monitored by Democrats and Republicans alike as we approach the 2018 midterm election. Arizona Senator Jeff Flake announced he would not run for reelection last year, amid rumors that his internal polling showed him struggling to beat likely Democrats fielded against him.

This led to a highly publicized battle for Flake’s vacant seat between Dr. Kelly Ward and Arizona Representative Martha McSally, who eventually won her primary against Ward. This left many Republicans wondering if the party could coalesce around McSally, and many Democrats wondering it could provide the perfect opportunity for a blue wave to overtake the generally red state in November.

Local media in Arizona has been insistent that Democrats would sweep due to the controversy surrounding President Donald Trump, with local paper AZ Central suggesting that because of a surge in new Democrat voters, the “‘blue wave’ will make things much more competitive,” and represents Democrats’ first ability to “make gains” in the overall number of elected officials in the state since 2008.

Tucson.com also notes more Democrats have registered to vote, likely due to controversy surrounding President Trump, and suggests that if Republican voters “choose to sit out in,” the November 6 election, Democrats could have a large sweep in Arizona.

In spite of the supposed energy surrounding Arizona Democrats, and the alleged lack of enthusiasm surrounding the Republican Party, early voting return information does not lend itself to the idea that Democrats will come out in numbers sufficient for the “blue wave” to make more than a splash in the state of Arizona.

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