Washington Senate Race Moves From ‘Leans Dem’ To ‘Toss-up’ As Midterms Approach

  |  
Oct 31, 2022

The state of Washington has quickly turned into an election to watch.

According to RealClearPolitics’ projections from Sunday, the U.S. Senate race in Washington went from “leans Dem” to “toss-up.” 

This comes after two polls showed Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley TIED with incumbent Democrat Patty Murray. 

“A survey from the Trafalgar Group showed the race in a statistical tie, while another poll from the Moore Information Group (MIG) also showed a dead heat,” The Daily Wire outlined.

“The race for U.S. Senate in Washington is now tied,” Moore Information Group said in a press release announcing the results. 

“Tiffany Smiley has caught up to 30-year incumbent Senator Patty Murray and the race is now dead even at 46 percent Smiley and 46 percent Murray, eliminating the four percent advantage enjoyed by Murray in September (48 to 44 percent),” the group added.

From The Daily Wire:

The poll also found that Murray’s net favorability rating had sunk -3 points, down from -1 in the previous poll. In September, the survey found Murray’s favorability rating was 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable; in October, that rating had shifted from 45% favorable to 48% unfavorable. 

Smiley, meanwhile, still has a net favorability rating of 3 points, 44%-41%. That number was up from last month when her favorable rating was 37%-34%.

The poll also found that Smiley would likely benefit from the 8% of undecided voters, but 80% of them said the country was off on the “wrong track,” MIG reported. Undecided voters were firmly against Murray and President Joe Biden: among undecideds, just 18% favored Murray, while 47% had an unfavorable opinion; just 30% of undecideds approved of Biden’s job performance, while 60% disapproved. 

The top issues for those voters were crime, which 18 percent of voters said was most important, and “controlling government spending and taxes,” which topped the list for 16% of undecideds.

“In wave election years, the national political environment is often the key to flipping Senate seats and right now, the Washington Senate race has become ground zero for a wave election upset,” the press release continued.

We have seen similar Democrat leaning states on the west coast suddenly turn into toss up races heading into midterms.

For instance, for the first time in four decades, Oregon could elect its first Republican governor.

Oregon Could Elect First Republican Governor In Four Decades Due To Failed ‘Soft On Crime’ Policies

According to the Washington Free Beacon, Christine Drazan currently leads her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, in a tight race.

Democrats are hellbent on keeping the state blue. With The Democratic Governors Association donating more than three million dollars to Kotek’s campaign just this year alone.

Oregon has served as a major case study for how poor Democrats’ soft on crime and drug use has been on the community.

“Nearly 90 percent of voters say the quality of life has worsened in the city, according to a February poll, and a quarter say crime is Portland’s biggest problem,” the Washington Free Beacon reported.

As Big League Politics wrote earlier this year, Oregon is facing “record-high overdoses” following hard drugs being decriminalized back in 2021.

Oregon Faces ‘Record-High Overdoses’ After Hard Drugs Decriminalized In 2021

Many of these same themes are on the ballot for the U.S. Senate race in Washington state. Democrats and their various failed policies are heavily in question. Especially amongst “undecided” voters.

“Tiffany Smiley is running an incredible campaign, and she’s got 30-year incumbent Patty Murray and national Democrats running scared,” NRSC spokesman Chris Hartline said.

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